Tropical Cyclone Discussion

222
WTPZ43 KNHC 141439
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026
500 AM HST Fri Aug 14 2026
 
After being devoid of convection through much of the night, an 
uptick in showers and thunderstorms is now occurring north and east 
of the completely exposed center. An earlier microwave pass 
indicated established bands to the north and east of the system, 
with less-defined organization to the south and west. However, 
objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 25-41 kt. 
Given these estimates and the recent increase in convection, the 
intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory.
 
The tropical storm has continued on a southward track longer than 
previously forecast, but it has begun to turn toward the 
south-southwest over the past few hours as it is steered by a 
low-level ridge positioned between Hernan and Tropical Storm Lala, 
which is approaching the Hawaiian Island chain. A turn toward the 
southwest, followed by a west-southwestward motion, is expected 
later today and through the weekend as a mid-level ridge builds to 
the northwest. Given the storm's farther south initial position, the 
latest NHC track has been shifted to the left of the previous track 
and lies between the previous forecast and various consensus aids. 
 
Despite moving over warm sea surface temperatures, Hernan continues 
to contend with strong west-northwesterly wind shear. Mid-level dry 
air is also expected to wrap around the western and southern 
portions of the circulation today and tonight, causing gradual 
weakening. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS 
suggest that organized convection will dissipate later today or 
tonight, although a closed circulation could persist this weekend. 
The latest NHC forecast calls for Hernan to weaken to a remnant low 
within 24 h and open into a trough by 72 h. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 15.4N 132.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 15.4N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 15.1N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/0000Z 15.0N 136.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1200Z 14.9N 138.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/0000Z 15.1N 141.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED