Tropical Cyclone Discussion

031
WTPZ43 KNHC 140838
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 13 2026

Although Hernan remains a convection-less swirl of low- to 
mid-level clouds, recent synthetic aperture radar data shows that 
the system continues to maintain tropical storm-force winds. Thus, 
the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 35 kt.

The initial motion is 180/4 kt, with the cyclone currently being 
steered by a low-level ridge between it and Tropical Storm Lala to 
the west. During the next couple of days, Hernan should turn
gradually southwestward and westward as the large-scale eastern 
Pacific high to the north provides a more westward steering 
current. There is little change in either the guidance or forecast 
track since the previous advisory.
 
Hernan is expected to weaken due to a combination of strong 
westerly shear and dry air entrainment, and the storm is forecast 
to weaken to a depression on Friday. The latest simulated satellite 
imagery from the ECMWF and GFS models suggest that the associated 
convection will dissipate completely between 12-24 h, and based on 
this premise the system is shown decaying to a remnant low at 24 h 
and into a trough by 72 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 16.1N 131.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 15.9N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 15.5N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/1800Z 15.2N 135.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0600Z 15.1N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  16/1800Z 15.1N 140.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED