Tropical Cyclone Discussion
776 WTPA42 PHFO 132055 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 6 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 13 2026 Tropical Storm Lala has strengthened a little this morning. A very recent ASCAT-B pass showed peak winds of about 40 kt north of the center, and data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure is around 1000 mb. Based on a combination of aircraft, scatterometer, and satellite data, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 40 kt. The storm's wind field is quite asymmetric with all of its tropical-storm-force winds occurring north of the center. Additional data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be helpful to further assess Lala's intensity over the next couple of days. Lala has slowed down a bit and turned to the west-northwest. A large mid-level high pressure system located to the north of the Hawaiian Islands should keep Lala on a west-northwestward track, taking the core of the system near the Big Island by early Saturday. Lala will very likely pass south of the remainder of the main Hawaiian Islands later in the weekend. The spread in the guidance has increased a little this cycle, with the GFS shifting south of the previous run while the Google DeepMind remains unchanged on the north side of the guidance envelope. Based on a blend of the latest Google DeepMind, HCCA, and TVCA aids, the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. It is important to note, that the NHC 48-h track error is about 50 to 60 miles. Lala is likely to continue to strengthen while it approaches the Big Island as the storm is expected to remain in generally conducive environmental conditions. The NHC intensity forecast now shows Lala reaching category one hurricane status when it is near the Big Island, trending toward the latest HCCA and Google DeepMind solutions. An upper-level low is expected to develop and impart shear, helping intrude dry air in the circulation when Lala moves to the south of the smaller islands, and that could cause some weakening this weekend. However, re-strengthening is forecast early next week when the system pulls away from the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged. This forecast lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term, but lies near the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and it could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Big Island of Hawaii by early Saturday. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the island, and a Hurricane Warning could be required later today. Winds are expected to be the strongest in areas of higher terrain. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward across the remainder of the island chain during the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are expected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along the southern shores. This prolonged period of heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. 4. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Lala, and Tropical Storm Watches could be required later today or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.4N 146.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 16.1N 147.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.9N 150.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 17.5N 152.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.2N 154.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 19.0N 157.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 19.8N 160.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 21.1N 165.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 22.3N 169.4W 70 KT 80 MPH