Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
579 AXNT20 KNHC 131759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Aug 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic along 27N and lower pressure over northern South America will tighten late this week, behind a passing tropical wave, increasing trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, and forcing gales to develop Fri evening in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Gales will prevail Fri night then diminish below gale-force Sat morning. Very rough seas to 15 ft will build near and downwind of these gales in the southwest Caribbean Fri night into early Sat. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Invest AL92: Showers and thunderstorms have become less organized in association with a tropical wave located along 45W. In addition, recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system does not have a closed circulation, but did show strong winds north of the low to 20N, between 37W and 50W, with rough seas to 10 ft. This system is expected to move into a region of strong upper-level winds and dry air, and the development chances appear to be decreasing. This system currently has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible Friday night and Saturday, regardless of development. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W, from 06N to 20N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 25W and 35W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave extends from NW Venezuela across the western Dominican Republic, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 15N to 25N between 67W and 73W. The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, southward across central Cuba to Panama, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is impacting the waters between Cuba and Jamaica, and also W of Jamaica to about 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and extends southwestward through a 1010 mb low pressure near 11N45W to 06N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N and E of 21W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, convection near these features is primarily associated with the tropical waves and special feature described above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by a 1018 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the NE Gulf. Mainly moderate E to S winds, with slight to moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. A diurnal surface trough has moved offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and into the central Bay of Campeche, triggering scattered moderate convection along the northern end of the trough axis. Behind the trough, fresh SE winds prevail. For the forecast, a weak high pressure should remain over the N Gulf for the next several days. A nightly surface trough will move westward off of the Yucatan peninsula into the SW Gulf, causing fresh to locally strong NE winds. Elsewhere, winds and seas should be quiescent for the next several days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning that has been issued for portion of the south-central basin effective Fri night. The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure along 27N and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean S of 17N. Rough seas to 8 ft prevail over these waters. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate seas to 6 ft prevail over the northeast Caribbean behind the tropical wave across the eastern Dominican Republic. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over the remaining waters. For the forecast, a strong tropical wave along 70W along with the Bermuda High north of the region will enhance the trades over the central Caribbean tonight through Sat. Peak winds should reach gale force just north of Colombia and Venezuela tonight through Sat morning. Additionally, another strong tropical wave - noted as Invest AL92 - should start impacting the Leeward Islands beginning tomorrow evening. Winds strong to near gale force along with scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from tomorrow night through Sat night for the Leeward Islands. As Invest AL92 moves westward, the enhanced winds will shift toward through N central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles including the Windward Passage from Sat night through Sun night. Afterwards the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean. Note that if Invest AL92 forms into a tropical cyclone, the winds and waves expected may be higher than indicated here. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92 located over the central tropical Atlantic. High pressure prevails over the waters N of 18N, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 28N46W, extending westward to SE Florida, and northeastward to a 1027 mb high near 35N27W. Mainly gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 24N and west of 30W, with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S of 24N and W of 30W, with moderate seas. Invest AL92 is currently passing due south of the 1024 mb high center, and is producing a broad swath of fresh to strong winds S of 20N between 37W and 50W. Offshore Africa, fresh to locally strong NE winds extend from the Canary Islands to 20N then become moderate to locally fresh across the Cabo Verde Islands to 30W. Moderate to locally rough seas prevail across this area. Upper level troughing supports widely scattered moderate convection N of 25N between 60W and 80W. Dry and stable Saharan Air continues to dominate much of the basin S of 24N to 14N, between Africa and the NE Caribbean. For the forecast west of 55W, ridging along 27N with the Bermuda High combined with two tropical waves passing through the Caribbean will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N from tonight through Sun night. Elsewhere winds are expected to remain light to moderate for the next few days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will slowly push across our northern border east of 70W Sun, causing a wind shift to northeast but with little change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N.