Tropical Cyclone Discussion
313 WTPA42 PHFO 131439 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 5 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Thu Aug 13 2026 Over the past several hours, deep convection has been increasing near the center and in bands on the north side of the system. In addition, the circulation appears less elongated and more consolidated. Based on the improvement in its appearance, the system now meets the criteria of a tropical storm. The initial intensity of Lala is estimated to be 35 kt, which is near the middle of the latest satellite intensity estimates. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Lala later this morning, and that data will be quite helpful in better assessing the storm's intensity and structure. Lala is moving generally westward at about 9 kt. The track forecast philosophy appears fairly straightforward. A large mid-level high pressure system located to the north of the Hawaiian Islands should keep Lala on a westward to west-northwestward track, taking the core of the system near or just south of the Big Island by early Saturday. Lala will very likely pass south of the smaller islands during the remainder of the weekend. The guidance has trended a bit to the south this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction. It is important to note, that the NHC 48-h track error is about 50 to 60 miles. The storm is likely to strengthen during the next couple of days as the environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable for the system. The NHC intensity forecast brings Lala up to 60 kt around the time it nears the Big Island, but there is some very skillful guidance, including the Google DeepMind and HCCA that show it becoming a category 1 hurricane during that time. An upper-level low is expected to develop and impart shear, helping intrude dry air in the circulation when Lala moves to the south of the smaller islands, and that could cause some weakening this weekend. However, re-strengthening is forecast early next week when the system pulls away from the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term, but lies near the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and it could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Big Island by early Saturday. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the island. Winds are expected to be the strongest downslope of higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward across the island chain during the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are expected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along the southern shores. This prolonged period of heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. 4. Interests in the smaller islands should monitor the progress of Lala, and Tropical Storm Watches could be required later today or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 15.2N 145.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 15.9N 146.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 16.6N 149.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.4N 151.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.0N 154.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 18.7N 156.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 19.6N 159.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 21.0N 164.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 22.6N 169.5W 70 KT 80 MPH