Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
441 AXNT20 KNHC 131001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Aug 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic along 27N and lower pressure over northern South America will tighten late this week, behind a passing tropical wave, increasing trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, and forcing gales to develop Fri evening in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Gales will prevail Fri night then diminish below gale-force Sat morning. Very rough seas to 15 ft will build near and downwind of these gales in the southwest Caribbean Fri night into early Sat. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Invest AL92: Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located in the Central Tropical Atlantic along 43W, midway between the Lesser Antilles and the west coast of Africa. 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed there near 11N42W. Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed strong winds north of the low to 20N, between 37W and 48W, with rough seas to 10 ft. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression will likely form during the next day or so while the system moves westward or west- northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. However, by Friday, upper-level winds are likely to become too strong for development as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. There is high chance for tropical formation in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W-28W, from 06N to 19N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 26W and 33W. Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed strong SW to W winds noted on the S side of the system. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west- northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance for development in the next 7 days. The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W-68W, extending from Venezuela across the eastern Dominican Republic, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 14N to 25N between 67W and 72W. The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W, southward across eastern Cuba to northwestern Colombia, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is impacting the Windward Passage, between Cuba and Jamaica, and nearby waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends southwestward to 10.5N29W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N42W to 07N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 11N E of 19W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, convection near these features is primarily associated with the tropical wave and special feature described above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by a 1018 mb high near 27N85W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the NE Gulf. Mainly moderate E to S winds, with slight to moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. A diurnal surface trough has moved offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and into the central Bay of Campeche overnight, triggering scattered moderate convection along it. Behind the trough, fresh SE winds prevail. For the forecast, high pressure across the NE Gulf will change little through Sat before weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning that has been issued for portion of the south-central basin effective Fri night. The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure along 27N and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean S of 17N. Rough seas to 8 ft prevail over these waters. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate seas to 6 ft prevail over the northeast Caribbean behind the tropical wave across the eastern Dominican Republic. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over the remaining waters. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will gradually strengthen across the Caribbean basin, behind a tropical wave currently moving across the eastern Caribbean, leading to a significant expansion in coverage of strong trade winds over the eastern and central portions of the basin, today through Sat. Winds are expected to increase to gale-force offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night. Looking ahead, an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave located over the central Atlantic near 42W is showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. However, by Friday, upper-level winds are likely to become too strong for development as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. This system is forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles Sat morning, and reach 70W Sun morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92 located over the central tropical Atlantic. High pressure prevails over the waters N of 18N, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 28N50W, extending westward to SE Florida, and northeastward to a 1024 mb high near 35N26W. Mainly gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 24N and west of 23W, with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S of 23N and W of 48W, with moderate seas. Invest AL92 is currently passing due south of the 1022 mb high center, and producing a broad swath of fresh to strong winds S of 20N between 37W and 48W. Offshore Africa, fresh to locally strong NE winds extend from the Canary Islands to 20N then become moderate to locally fresh across the Cabo Verde Islands to 30W. Moderate to locally rough seas prevail across this area. Dry and stable Saharan Air continues to dominate much of the basin S of 24N to 14N, between Africa and the NE Caribbean. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will sink slightly southward Fri and Fri night, before weakening over the weekend into early next week. S of 23N, trade winds will freshen from E to W today through Sat, behind a tropical wave currently across the eastern Caribbean. Fresh trades N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage will pulse to strong speeds each night. Looking ahead, Invest AL92 is forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles Sat morning, and reach 70W Sun morning.