Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
555 AXNT20 KNHC 130426 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Aug 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure centered toward Bermuda and lower pressure over northern South America will tighten late this week, increasing trade winds and forcing gales to develop Fri evening in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Gales will prevail Fri night then diminish Sat. Very rough seas will build near and downwind of these gales in the southwest Caribbean Fri night into early Sat. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Invest AL92: Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located in the Central Tropical Atlantic midway between the Lesser Antilles and the west coast of Africa, with an axis along 40W. This system currently has some strong winds and rough seas impacting waters from 09N to 15N between 38W and 42W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression will likely form during the next day or two while the system moves westward or west- northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. There is high chance for tropical formation in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W, from 05N to 18N, a few hundred miles SW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 24W and 32W, and some strong SW winds are noted on the SE side of the system. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance for development in the next 7 days. The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, extending across Puerto Rico southward to Venezuela, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 63W and 66W. The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, southward across far eastern Cuba to northern Colombia, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is impacting the Windward Passage, between Cuba and Jamaica, and nearby waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near new and extends southwestward to a 1010 mb low pressure near 11N40W to 09N48W. The ITCZ extends from 09N48W to 09N59W. Convection near these features is primarily associated with the tropical wave and special feature described in the sections above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1019 mb high near 28N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are in the vicinity of the high center. Mainly moderate SE winds, with slight to moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. A diurnal surface trough has moved NW and offshore the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, triggering scattered moderate convection along it. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extending westward across Florida and into the north-central Gulf will change little through Sat before weakening Sun. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning that has been issued for portion of the south-central basin effective Fri night. The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean. Rough seas prevail over these waters. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas, prevail over the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over the remaining waters. For the forecast, an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located over the central Atlantic near 40W is showing some signs of organization tonight. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and reaches the Lesser Antilles Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92 located over the central tropical Atlantic. High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 28N51W. Mainly gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 23N and west of 25W, with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted elsewhere S of 23N, with moderate seas. Offshore Africa, fresh to locally strong NE winds extend from the Canary Islands to 20N then become moderate across the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate seas prevail across this area. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge extends along 27N tonight and will sink slightly southward Thu, then change little through Fri night, before weakening over the weekend. Winds will freshen from E to W, and south of 23N, tonight through Sat, behind a tropical wave currently across the eastern Caribbean. Fresh trades N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage will pulse to strong speeds each night.