Tropical Cyclone Discussion

275
WTPZ43 KNHC 130251
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026
 
Scatterometer passes over the past day or so have indicated that
Invest 99E has had a closed, well-defined circulation during that
time, including a recent OSCAT pass.  Deep convection has pulsed up
and down over the past day, but has recently been persisting
well-enough for the past 6 hours to be classified as a tropical 
cyclone.  The latest subjective Dvorak fix from TAFB is 1.5/25 kt, 
but wind vectors from OSCAT, as well as the ASCAT pass from 
yesterday, suggest that it likely has winds near 30 kt, and that is 
the initial NHC intensity for this advisory.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300
degrees at 6 kt.  As a trough near the west coast of the U.S. pulls
away and some weak ridging builds back in to the north, the cyclone
should gradually turn toward the southwest as it feels a tug from
lower pressures toward the southwest of the system.  The NHC
forecast lies near, but slightly south of, the latest HFIP corrected
consensus (HCCA) model.  The spread in the models is a little
greater than average, so the confidence in the track forecast is a
bit below average.
 
The cyclone is experiencing moderate to strong westerly wind shear, 
mainly due to the aforementioned trough to the north and outflow 
from Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C.  Therefore, very little 
strengthening is likely.  The NHC forecast calls for a peak 
intensity of 35 kt in 12-24 hours, which is near the high end of the 
intensity guidance suite.  Thereafter, although shear may decrease 
some as that trough pulls away, mid-level humidities are expected to 
decrease at the same time, and model guidance suggests there may not 
be much left of the cyclone by 48 h.  The NHC forecast calls for the 
system to become a remnant low in 48 h, but GFS and ECMWF simulated 
satellite imagery indicate it could become a remnant low even sooner 
than forecast.  After that, model guidance shows the system 
gradually spinning down and dissipating in about 3 days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0300Z 18.1N 131.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 18.2N 131.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 17.9N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 17.0N 132.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 16.2N 133.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  15/1200Z 15.5N 134.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/0000Z 15.2N 136.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED