Tropical Cyclone Discussion
505 WTPA41 PHFO 121454 TCDCP1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Discussion Number 1 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Wed Aug 12 2026 The disturbance well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or so and be near the Islands by late Friday. Given the potential for significant impacts over the Hawaiian Islands, Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories are being initiated at this time. The system's cloud pattern is elongated from southwest to northeast with most of the deep convection well to the southwest of the center. The disturbance currently lacks sufficiently organized convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone, and the Dvorak classifications from Honolulu are T1.0/1.0. Scatterometer data suggests that the intensity is near 30 kt, Satellite fixes indicate that the system is moving generally westward and the initial motion estimate is 270/9 kt. Dynamical models show a mid-level high pressure system persisting to the north of the disturbance. This steering pattern should result in a generally west-northwestward track for the next several days. The simple and corrected model consensus and Google DeepMind track predictions are in reasonable agreement, and the official forecast follows this guidance closely. Given that the system is still in the formative stage, the precise track is still somewhat uncertain. The atmospheric and oceanic environment look conducive for gradual strengthening during the next few days. Based on the intensity models, the system is expected to be nearing hurricane strength by the time it nears the Hawaiian Islands. However, an upper-level low/trough could limit strengthening while the system passes near or over the Islands. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight and strengthen while it moves west-northwestward near or over the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with the system is expected to begin to impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward into Maui on Saturday, and across Lanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai on Sunday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands tonight or early Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 15.0N 141.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/0000Z 15.3N 142.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 13/1200Z 15.9N 144.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 16.9N 145.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 17.9N 148.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 18.6N 150.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 19.1N 153.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 20.6N 158.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 22.3N 163.7W 60 KT 70 MPH