{"msg": "641\nAXNT20 KNHC 112121\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Wed Aug 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCentral Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are occurring around\n550 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental \nconditions are forecast to become more conducive for development \nduring the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will \nlikely form during the latter half of this week while the system \nmoves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical \nAtlantic. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone \ndevelopment in the next 48 hours.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 32W from 02N to 19N, moving \nwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N\nto 14N between 30W and 40W. Please read the Special Features \nsection above for more information about this wave. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 53.5W from 02N to 18N, moving\nwest at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N \nto 12N between 53W and 57W. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 65W S of 23N, moving west at \n15 to 20 kt. Showers and thunderstorms are noted over portions of\nPuerto Rico. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 85W S of 21N, moving west at \n15 kt. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted from \n14N to 20N between 83W and 88W. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W and continues \nsouthwestward to 1012 mb low pres near 11N32.5W to 11N52W. Aside \nfrom the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, \nscattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is \nnoted from 08N to 13N and east of 21W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1021 \nmb high in the NE Gulf. Light winds and slight seas are in the \nvicinity of the high. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to \nlocally moderate seas, prevail over the remainder of the Gulf \nwaters.\nFor the forecast, high pressure will be in control of the general\nwind flow pattern across the basin through the period allowing \nfor mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds to prevail across the \nbasin, with the exception of pulses of fresh winds occurring north\nand west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche \neach evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from \nthe Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to \nmoderate seas are expected through the forecast period. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and\nthe Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the\ncentral Caribbean. Rough seas cover these waters. Gentle to\nmoderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the remainder of\nthe Caribbean waters. \nFor the forecast, fresh to strong trades are over the central \nCaribbean due to the pressure gradient between high pressure \nridging over the western Atlantic and lower pressure in northern \nSouth America. The ridge will gradually shift southward to near \n26N by Thu allowing for the trades to significantly expand in \ncoverage to cover the eastern portion of the basin into early Sat.\nA strong tropical wave, or low pressure is expected to cross the \nLesser Antilles eastern late Sat night and move across the eastern\nCaribbean through Sun night. Winds are expected to reach near- \ngale force offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each \nnight, except Wed night. There is some potential for winds to \nreach gale force offshore Colombia Fri night. Winds will pulse up \nto fresh to strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the \nWindward Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate \nto fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nHigh pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a \n1021 mb high centered near 27N52W. Light to gentle winds \ngenerally prevail over the waters N of 23N and west of 30W, with \nslight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S\nof 23N and west of 30W, with moderate seas. Fresh to strong N to \nNE winds, and moderate seas, cover the remaining discussion \nwaters.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging along 28N \nwill gradually shift southward to near 26N by Thu and change \nlittle into the weekend. The gradient will tighten over the \nsouthern portion leading to an increase of the trades from the \nBahamas eastward. Fresh trades will prevail N of Hispaniola and in\nthe approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing \nto strong speeds each night. Of note, disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are present well \neast of the forecast waters over the far eastern Atlantic. \nEnvironmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for\ndevelopment during the next couple of days, and a tropical \ndepression will likely form during the latter half of this week \nwhile the system moves westward to west- northwestward across the \ncentral tropical Atlantic. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1200663366329073671", "issued": "2026-08-11T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1200663366329073671", "canonical": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/adv-text/1200663366329073671.json"}