{"msg": "868\nAXPZ20 KNHC 142152\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sat Nov 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2130 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nSignificant NW Swell Event: A series of NW swell sets will \ncontinue to impact the waters N of about 05N for the next several\ndays associated with the passage of several cold fronts. \nCurrently, a cold front extends from 30N119W to 24.5N140W. Ahead \nof the front, and extending as far south of 05N and W of 110W, \nrough seas of 8 to 12 ft in decaying NW swell associated with a \nformer front is ongoing. The period of this swell is 10 to 15 \nseconds. Behind the front, a reinforcing and larger set of NW \nswell with 16 to 20 second period continues to spread across the \nnorthern waters with peak seas around 24 ft, as noted on recent \naltimeter satellite data and buoy data. By this evening, the \nfront is forecast to reach Baja California Norte N of Punta \nEugenia to 23N130W while weakening, with rough seas of 12 to 20 \nft spreading as far south as 15N with seas up to 24 ft N of 27N, \nand rough seas of 8 to 11 ft to 05N. These high energy waves will\nhave a period of 13 to 20 seconds. These seas will keep \nspreading SE as yet another set with seas of 12 ft or greater \narrives to near 30N140W by late tonight into early Sun, spreading\nacross the majority of the waters into early next week. Please \nread the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website: \nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/HSFEP2.shtml for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09N83.5W \nwestward to 04N100W to 05N129W. The ITCZ extends from 05N129W to\nbeyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection \nis noted from 01S to 08N between 84W and 114W and from 08N to \n12N W of 129W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nRecent scatterometer satellite imagery indicate that moderate to\nlocally fresh NW to W winds are occurring offshore of Baja \nCalifornia north of Cabo San Lazaro, ahead of a cold front moving\nthrough Southern California and into northern Baja. Rough seas \nof 8 to 12 ft are occurring offshore of the Baja peninsula and \nnear the Revillagigedo Islands, as observed by recent altimeter \ndata. In the Gulf of California, mainly moderate SW to NW winds \nand 2 to 4 ft seas are noted, along a trough axis that extends \nthrough the region. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to \nmoderate seas in NW swell prevail elsewhere over the Mexico \noffshore waters. \nFor the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas \nare expected to develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Mon \nevening. Winds will pulse to gale force Tue evening through the \nend of next week, and very rough seas over 12 ft will accompany \nthese winds. Elsewhere, a new N to NW swell will support very \nrough seas offshore of Baja California Norte tonight, with peak \nseas of 12 to 20 ft expanding offshore of the whole peninsula \nthrough Sun. Seas may temporarily subside to 8 to 12 ft late Sun \ninto early Mon before the next reinforcing swell event promotes \nseas of 8 to 16 ft through midweek. In addition, a cold front is\nexpected to produce fresh to locally strong N to NW winds north \nof Cabo San Lazaro late Mon through midweek. Elsewhere, rough \nseas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell will expand to offshore of \nsouthwestern Mexico Sun through early next week. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nEarlier scatterometer satellite data indicate that moderate NE\nwinds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, moderate \nor weaker winds are noted as a light pressure gradient prevails \nover the Central American offshore waters. Moderate seas of 4 to \n7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell prevail. \nFor the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds \nare expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo into early next \nweek, with fresh to occasionally strong winds developing by Tue.\nModerate N winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through \nmidweek. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail \nelsewhere. Looking ahead, rough seas in N swell may develop well \noffshore of Guatemala by the middle of next week, prompted by \ngale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a set of \nNW swell may build seas to 8 ft or greater SSW of the Galapagos \nIslands by the middle of next week. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for details on\na series of significant NW swell sets which will impact much of\nthe open waters.\nA cold front extends from 30N119W to 24.5N140W. The pressure \ngradient between this front and the ITCZ in the deep tropics is \nsupporting moderate to occasionally fresh NE winds, generally \nsouth of 20N and west of 115W. Significant NW swell is producing \nwidespread rough seas in excess of 8 ft N of 05N over much of the\nopen waters, with peak seas of 12 to 24 ft located north of 20N \nand west of 120W, as noted on recent buoy and altimeter data. \nElsewhere, locally rough seas around 8 ft in mixed SW and NW \nswell are occurring near the equator offshore of the Galapagos \nIslands.\nFor the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to \nimpact the waters N of about 05N for the next several days \nassociated with the passage of several cold fronts. A reinforcing\nand larger set of NW swell with 16 to 20 second period continues\nto spread across the northern waters with peak seas around 24 \nft. By this evening, the front is forecast to reach Baja \nCalifornia Norte N of Punta Eugenia to 23N130W while weakening, \nwith rough seas of 12 to 24 ft spreading as far south as 15N, and\nrough seas of 8 to 11 ft to 05N. These high energy waves will \nhave a period of 13 to 20 seconds. These seas will keep spreading\nSE as yet another set with seas of 12 ft or greater arrives to \nnear 30N140W by late tonight into early Sun, spreading across the\nmajority of the waters into early next week. In addition, fresh \nto strong N to NE winds are expected behind the passage of \nanother cold front, generally north of 10N and west of 120W late \nSun through the middle of next week.  \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1227563872646856711", "issued": "2026-11-14T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1227563872646856711"}