{"msg": "147\nAXPZ20 KNHC 140936\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sat Nov 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0920 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nSignificant NW Swell Event: A series of NW swell sets will \ncontinue to impact the waters N of about 10N for the next \nseveral days associated with the passage of several cold fronts. \nCurrently, a cold front extends from 31N121W SW to 27N130W to \n26N140W. Ahead of the front, and extending as far south of 07N \nand W of 112W, rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in decaying NW swell \nassociated with a former front is ongoing. The period of this \nswell is 8 to 12 seconds. Behind the front, a reinforcing and \nlarger set of NW swell with 13 to 22 seconds period, continues to\nspread across the northern waters with peak seas around 22 ft \nnear 29N133W. By this evening, the front is forecast to reach \nBaja California Norte N of Punta Eugenia to 24N130W while \nweakening, with rough seas of 12 to 21 ft spreading as far south\nas 17N, and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft to 07N. These high energy \nwaves will have a period of 13 to 18 seconds. These seas will \nkeep spreading SE as yet another set with seas of 12 ft or \ngreater arrives to near 30N140W by late tonight into early Sun, \nspreading across the majority of the waters into early next week.\nPlease read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website: \nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/HSFEP2.shtml for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 08N78W westward\nto 07N90W to 08N100W, then resumes near 09N110W to 09N124W. The\nITCZ extends from 09N124W and beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate\nisolated strong convection is between the coasts of W Colombia \nand Ecuador to 94W. Similar convection extends from 05N to 10N W\nof 135W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 03S to \n12N between 98W and 120W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nFresh to strong north winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec \nsupported by the resultant pressure gradient between a high \npressure system over central United States extending a ridge to\nthe northern Gulf of America, and lower pressure associated to \nthe monsoon trough south of the area. Seas over these waters are\n5 to 7 ft. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between a cold front\napproaching Baja California Norte from the NW and high pressure\nover New Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and\nrough seas of 8 to 12 ft with a period of 8 to 12 seconds in NW\nswell across the Baja California offshore waters. A pre-frontal\ntrough over the northern Gulf of California supports fresh SW \nwinds with seas to 5 ft, and moderate or weakwer winds with seas \nto 3 ft elsewhere along the remainder Gulf. A weak pressure \ngradient present across the remainder of the Mexican offshore \nwaters is generally allowing for mainly light to gentle winds and\nslightly lower seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell.\nFor the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas\naround 8 ft will diminish over the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this\nmorning. The next Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to \nbegin by Mon evening, and continue through much of the next week.\nWinds there may reach gale-force starting late Tue and possibly \ncontinue through most of the period through Thu evening. Fresh \nNW winds W of Baja California N of Punta Eugenia will diminish to\ngentle to moderate speeds later this morning. Very rough seas \nfrom an expansive set of NW swell over these waters will peak to \naround 20 ft tonight before gradually subsiding afterward. Another\nrather expansive set of NW swell expected today should build \nseas to around 19 ft over the outer offshore waters of Baja \nCalifornia Norte. Rough seas will reach all the way to past 100W,\nwhile additional and reinforcing NW swell sets continue to \narrive.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA weakened pressure gradient is generally providing for light \nto gentle winds over the Central American offshore waters. \nSlight to moderate seas are over these waters in mixed SW and NW\nswell with a period of 3 to 6 seconds. Higher winds and seas are\nlikely ongoing between the coasts of Colombia and Ecuador to the\nGalapagos Islands due to clusters of moderate to strong \nconvection over that region. \nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are \nforecast to return to the Papagayo region by late tonight, reach\nstrong speeds by Mon night, and continue through Thu. Moderate N\nwinds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama early next week. \nOtherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in merging \nSW and NW swell will remain through the next few days. Looking \nahead, a set of NW swell may build seas to 8 ft or greater SSW of\nthe Galapagos Islands by the middle of next week. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for details on\na series of significant NW swell sets which will impact much of\nthe open waters.\nA cold front extends from 31N121W SW to 27N130W to 26N140W. \nAhead of the front, and extending as far south of 07N and W of \n112W, rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in decaying NW swell associated \nwith a former front is ongoing. The period of this swell is 8 to \n12 seconds. Behind the front, a reinforcing and larger set of NW \nswell with 13 to 22 seconds period, continues to spread across \nthe northern waters with peak seas around 22 ft near 29N133W. \nModerate to fresh NE to E winds are over the waters from 10N to \n20N west of 120W with 8 to 11 ft seas in long-period NW swell. \nMerging southwest and northwest swell supports combined seas of 7\nto 9 ft over the waters S of 01N between 99W and 112W. \nElsewhere, winds are light to gentle and seas moderate.\nFor the forecast, the cold front will move across the northwest \nand north-central waters through Sun bringing an even larger \nreinforcing NW swell set, possibly reaching 23 ft along 30N. \nThis set of swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the \nwaters north of 05N and west of 110W by late tonight, then \ncovering all of the waters west of 105W. Yet another set of large\nswell will arrive Sun, with seas of 8 ft or greater across the \nentire waters W of 105W by late Sun night, then across the waters\nwest of 95W by Tue evening. Meanwhile, the mixed swell over the \nequatorial waters will diminish later this morning. Looking \nahead, another cold front may move into the NW waters by the end\nof the weekend and into early next week bringing a large area of\nfresh to strong winds behind it as high pressure builds in \nbehind the front. An additional pulse of large NW swell will be \nfollowing in behind this front.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1227419047065387015", "issued": "2026-11-14T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1227419047065387015"}