{"msg": "064\nAXNT20 KNHC 132344\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Sat Nov 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2330 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nNorth-Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends\nfrom near 31N71W to the northern Bahamas and to South Florida. \nStrong southwest winds are ahead of the front while fresh \nnorthwest winds are behind it. The front is expected to reach \nfrom near 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas by Sat morning, and \nfrom near 31N55W to near the Windward Passage by Sun morning. \nGale-force southwest winds will develop late tonight into Sat \nmorning ahead of the front north of 29N. These gale winds are \nexpected to be short-lived as latest forecast has them ending at \n15Z. Seas with these winds are forecast to build to around 13 ft \non Sat. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by \nthe National Hurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis exits the coast of Africa near 12N17W,\nand continues southwestward to 09N20W, where it transitions to \nthe ITCZ to 07N30W to 06N40W and to near 05N50W. Scattered \nmoderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between\n24W-29W, between 31W-35W and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ\nbetween 40W-45W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA cold front is analyzed from the Florida Keys to offshore \nVeracruz, Mexico. Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight \nto moderate seas are north of the front. Locally fresh winds and \nmoderate seas are off Veracruz in the far southwest Gulf. Light \nto gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, the cold front will exit the basin tonight. \nModerate to fresh north winds will veer easterly into Sat as \nhigh pressure builds southward toward the region in the wake of \nthe front. These easterly winds will increase Sat night into \nSun, to strong over the northern Gulf ahead of the next cold \nfront that will move offshore Texas Sun night into Mon. Near \ngale-force winds are likely in the far northern Gulf ahead of \nthis cold front early next week. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nFresh to strong winds and moderate seas remain over the waters east \nof 76W. Light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas, are \nnoted elsewhere. A trough extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of \nHonduras. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and east of \nthe trough to near 75W as well as over portions of central and \neastern Cuba. \nFor the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the eastern Caribbean \nwill diminish Sat. A cold front will enter the northwestern \nCaribbean this evening. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds \nare expected behind this front over the northwestern Caribbean Sat \nthrough Sun night. Trades are likely to strengthen again over the \nsouth central Caribbean starting Mon. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section for information on\nupcoming gale conditions east of a cold front. \nA strong cold front extends from near 31N75W to the northern \nBahamas and to South Florida. Strong southwest winds are ahead of\nthe front impacting the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba while\nfresh northwest winds are behind it. Seas ahead of the front are 7 \nto 11 ft and 5 to 7 ft behind it. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed \nfrom near 31N67W to 27N75W to west-central Cuba. To its NW, a very \nactive subtropical jet stream rounds the base of a deepening broad \nupper-level trough. A series of upper-level disturbances are riding \nalong the jet stream branch and combining with trough, which is \nresulting in numerous large clusters of numerous moderate to strong \nconvection east of the trough to near 60W. Scattered moderate \nconvection is seen from 24N to 30N between 54W and 60W. Over the \ncentral Atlantic, a trough is along 48W from 17N to 25N. No \nsignificant convection is occurring with this feature. A 1024 mb \nhigh center is north of the area at 34N35W, with a broad ridge \nstretching southwestward to the eastern portion of the Dominican \nRepublic. Light to gentle winds are roughly over the waters north of \nabout 24N between 35W and a line from 31N45W to 24N59W. Latest Ascat \nscatterometer data indicates a swath of fresh trades from 17N to 24N \neast of 50W, and also south of 15N east of the Windward Islands. \nSeas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft in wind generated waves, with \nnortheast swell merging with east to southeast swell. The latest \nAscat scatterometer data also indicates gentle to moderate winds \nover the remainder of the discussion waters along with mostly \nmoderate seas.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front is \nexpected to reach from near 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas\nby Sat morning, and from near 31N55W to near the Windward \nPassage by Sun morning. The frontal boundary should then stall \nand weaken into early next week. The pressure gradient between \nthe front and building Bermuda high pressure will tighten \nleading to increasing NE winds S of 27N and W of 65W Mon, and \nthese strong winds will expand northward Tue and Tue night. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1227302796692815879", "issued": "2026-11-13T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1227302796692815879"}