{"msg": "617\nAXPZ20 KNHC 122007\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Thu Nov 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1940 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nSignificant NW Swell Event: A series of NW swell sets will\ncontinue to impact the northern waters through the next several\ndays. Currently, seas are 12 ft or greater W of 30N127W to\n22N140W, with peak seas around 16 ft at 29N136W, and wave periods\nof 14-16 seconds. Seas of 12 ft or greater will cover the waters\nfrom W of 30N121W to 18N140W by early Fri morning. A reinforcing\nand larger set of NW swell will arrive later Fri, with peak seas\naround 22 ft near 30N138W by early Fri evening. By Sat afternoon,\nthis set with seas of 12 ft or greater will reach across the\nwaters W of 30N118W to 20N132W to 20N140W and peak seas of 22 ft\nnear 30N126W. Those seas will keep spreading SE, while yet\nanother set with seas of 12 ft or greater arrives to 30N140W by\nlate Sat night, spreading across the majority of the waters into\nearly next week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at\nwebsite: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/HSFEP2.shtml for more\ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from over the border of Nicaragua and\nPanama to the Gulf of Papagayo near 10.5N86W to 04N110W to\n00N130W to 00N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is observed between 300 nm and 600 nm SE of the\nmonsoon trough between 77W and 90W, from 02S to 09N between 105W\nand 128W, and from 06N to 15N between 128W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nFresh northerly winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec supported \nby the pressure gradient between a high pressure system over the \nsouthern United States and lower pressures with the monsoon \ntrough SE of the area. Seas in this waters are 4-7 ft. Meanwhile,\na weak pressure gradient is present in the remainder of the \nMexican offshore waters with mainly moderate or weaker winds,\nexcept locally fresh near Cabo Corrientes. Decaying NW swell is \nproducing seas of 5-8 ft across much of the area, except for \nslight seas in the Gulf of California.\nFor the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 \nft will pulse to strong at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec \nthrough Fri night with locally rough seas. The next Tehuantepec \ngap wind event is forecast to begin early next week and continue \nthrough much of the next week. Winds may reach gale-force \nstarting Tue night, if not sooner. Meanwhile, a cold front will \nmove across the offshore waters of Baja California Fri, bringing \nfresh winds and a new batch of rough seas approaching 12 ft. \nFresh to locally strong winds may also briefly impact the \nnorthern Gulf of California Fri. Then, a larger NW swell arriving\nSat will produce high seas to 20 ft. Rough seas will reach all \nthe way to past 100W by early next week, while additional and \nreinforcing NW swell sets continue to arrive. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA broad subtropical ridge centered north of the area sustains\nmoderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft in \nthe Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds \nand moderate seas are prevalent, except locally rough seas SW of \nthe Galapagos Islands in merging long period SW and NW swells.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh winds may return to the \nPapagayo region by the end of the weekend into early next week, \npossibly reaching strong speeds by Mon night, then near gale-\nforce by Tue night. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds may pulse in the\nGulf of Panama early next week. Otherwise, moderate or weaker \nwinds and moderate seas in merging SW and NW swell will prevail, \nexcept locally rough SSW of the Galapagos Islands through Fri \nnight. Looking ahead, a set of NW swell may build seas to 8 ft or\ngreater SSW of the Galapagos Islands by the middle of next week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for details on\na series of significant NW swell sets which will impact much of\nthe open waters.\nA cold front continues to move quickly southeastward across the NW\nwaters, extending from 30N125W to 22N140W. The tight pressure \ngradient between high pressure centered well WNW of the area, and\nthe aforementioned front sustains fresh to strong NW-N winds \nbehind the front to near 134W. Old and decaying NW swell \nsupports seas of 7-9 ft out ahead of the front. In the western \ntrade waters, a surface trough analyzed just W of 140W extending \nto the monsoon trough E of 140W is producing a large area of \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms as described above. Moderate \nto fresh easterly trade winds and rough seas are found from 12N \nto 18 and west of 132W. Merging SW and NW swells supports \ncombined seas of 7-10 ft across much of the waters S of 10 \nbetween 94W and 133W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker\nwith moderate seas, except locally fresh S of the Equator and W \nof 105W.\nFor the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move across\nthe northern waters tonight into early Fri, bringing with it \nfresh to strong winds on either side of the front, and very large\nseas in NW swell north of 20N through Fri. Another cold front \nwill sweep across the area Fri into the weekend, bringing even \nlarger reinforcing NW swell, possibly reaching 24 ft along 30N. \nThis set of swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the \nwaters N of 05N and W of 110W by late Sat night, then covering \nall of the waters W of 105W. Yet another set of large swell will \narrive Sun, with seas of 8 ft or greater across the entire waters\nW of 105W by late Sun night, then across the waters W of 95W by\nTue evening. Meanwhile, the mixed swell over the equatorial \nwaters will diminish by the weekend. Looking ahead, another cold \nfront may move into the NW waters by the end of the weekend into \nearly next week bringing a large area of fresh to strong winds \nbehind it as high pressure builds in.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1226979571763576834", "issued": "2026-11-12T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1226979571763576834"}