{"msg": "375\nAXPZ20 KNHC 121452\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Thu Nov 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1430 UTC.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure along the NW\ncoast of Colombia in the Caribbean Sea at 11N75W to across the\nborder of Costa Rica and Nicaragua to the Gulf of Papagayo at\n11N86W to 06N100W to 05N120W to 09N132W to 07N140W. Scattered \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02.5N to\n08N between 77W and 80W, from 01.5N to 05.5N between 81W and\n85.5W, from 02S to 07.5N between 103W and 126.5W, and from 06N to\n15.5N between 126.5W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nFresh to strong northern winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec\nsupported by the pressure gradient between a high pressure \nsystem over the southern United States and lower pressures with\nthe monsoon trough SE of the area. Seas in this waters are 4-7 \nft. Meanwhile, a weak pressure gradient is present in the \nremainder of the Mexican offshore waters with mainly moderate or\nweaker winds. Decaying NW swell is producing seas of 5-8 ft \nacross much of the area, except for slight seas in the Gulf of \nCalifornia.\nFor the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 \nft will pulse to strong at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec \nthrough Fri night with locally rough seas. The next Tehuantepec \ngap wind event is forecast to begin early next week and continue \nthrough much of the next week. Winds may reach gale-force \nstarting late Mon night. Meanwhile, a cold front will move \nacross the offshore waters of Baja California Fri, bringing fresh\nwinds and a new batch of rough seas approaching 12 ft. Fresh to \nlocally strong winds may also briefly impact the northern Gulf of\nCalifornia Fri. Then, a larger NW swell arriving Sat will \nproduce high seas to 20 ft. Rough seas will reach all the way to \npast 100W by early next week, while additional and reinforcing NW\nswell sets continue to arrive. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA broad subtropical ridge centered north of the area sustains\nmoderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft in\nthe Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds\nand moderate seas are prevalent, except locally rough seas SW of\nthe Galapagos Islands in merging long period SW and NW swells.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh NE-E winds in the Gulf of\nPapagayo will diminish later today. Moderate to fresh winds may \nreturn to the Papagayo region by the end of the weekend into \nearly next week, possibly reaching strong speeds by late Mon \nnight. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in \nmerging SW and NW swell will prevail, except locally rough SSW of\nthe Galapagos Islands through Fri night.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA cold front continues to move quickly southeastward across the NW\nwaters, extending from 30N128.5W to 23N140W. The tight pressure \ngradient between high pressure centered well WNW of the area, \nand the aforementioned front sustains fresh to strong NW-N winds \nbehind the front, along with seas of 8-18 ft, with the highest \nseas occurring near 30N137W. Old and decaying NW swell supports\nseas of 7-9 ft out ahead of the front. In the western trade \nwaters, a surface trough analyzed just W of 140W extending to the\nmonsoon trough E of 140W is producing a large area of showers \nand isolated thunderstorms as described above. Moderate to fresh \neasterly trade winds and rough seas are found from 12N to 19N and\nwest of 129W. Merging SW and NW swells supports combined seas of\n7-10 ft across much of the waters S of 12N between 97W and 127W.\nIn the southern waters, moderate to fresh SE winds and rough \nseas are found south of 02N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or \nlighter and a decaying NW swell is found across much of the \nremainder of the basin, supporting seas of 6-8 ft. Mainly\nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are found across the \nremainder of the waters, except locally fresh S of the Equator \nand W of 100W.\nFor the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move across\nthe northern waters today into early Fri, bringing with it fresh\nto strong winds on either side of the front, and very large seas\nin NW swell north of 20N through Fri. Another cold front will \nsweep across the area Fri into the weekend, bringing even larger \nreinforcing NW swell, possibly reaching 24 ft along 30N. This set\nof swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the waters N of\n05N and W of 110W by late Sat night, then covering all of the \nwaters W of 105W. Yet another set of large swell will arrive Sun,\nwith seas of 8 ft or greater across the entire waters W of 105W \nby late Sun night. Meanwhile, the mixed swell over the equatorial\nwaters will diminish by the weekend. Looking ahead, another cold\nfront may move into the NW waters by the end of the weekend into\nearly next week bringing a large area of fresh to strong winds \nbehind it as high pressure builds in.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1226915112922021890", "issued": "2026-11-12T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1226915112922021890"}