{"msg": "226\nAXPZ20 KNHC 120852\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Thu Nov 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0835 UTC.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N95W. The ITCZ\nstretches from 08N103W to 07N120W and to 10N136W. Scattered \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 08N \nand east of 87W and south of 15N and west of 101W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nA recent scatterometer satellite pass captured northerly winds of 18-\n26 kt across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are due to a 1024 \nmb high pressure system over the southern United States. Seas in \nthis waters are 4-7 ft. The satellite-derived data also showed \nmoderate to locally fresh NW winds in the northern and central Gulf \nof California. Meanwhile, a weak pressure gradient is present in the \nremainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Decaying NW swell is \nproducing seas of 5-8 ft across much of the area, except for slight \nseas in the Gulf of California.\nFor the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 \nft will pulse to strong at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec \nthrough Fri night. The next Tehuantepec gap wind event is\nforecast to begin early next week and continue through much of\nthe next week. Winds may reach gale-force starting late Tue.\nMeanwhile, a cold front will move across the offshore waters of\nBaja California Fri, bringing fresh winds and a new batch of \nrough seas approaching 12 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds may \nalso briefly impact the northern Gulf of California Fri. Then, a\nlarger NW swell arriving Sat will produce high seas to 20 ft. \nRough seas will reach all the way to past 100W by early next \nweek, while additional and reinforcing NW swell sets continue to \narrive. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA broad subtropical ridge centered north of the area sustains\nmoderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft in\nthe Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds\nand moderate seas are prevalent, except locally rough seas SW of\nthe Galapagos Islands in merging long period SW and NW swells.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh NE-E winds in the Gulf of\nPapagayo will diminish later today. Moderate to fresh winds may \nreturn to the Papagayo region by the end of the weekend into \nearly next week, possibly reaching strong speeds by late Mon \nnight. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in \nmerging SW and NW swell will prevail, except locally rough SSW of\nthe Galapagos Islands through Fri night.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA cold front continues to move quickly southeastward across the NW\nwaters, extending from 30N131W to 24N140W. The tight pressure\ngradient between a 1030 mb high pressure system near 31N163W and\nthe aforementioned front sustains fresh to strong NW-N winds\nbehind the front, along with seas of 8-18 ft, with the highest\nseas occurring near 30N140W. A recent altimeter satellite pass\ncaptured seas up to 19 ft just west of 30N140W. \nIn the western trade waters, a surface trough analyzed from\n16N133W to 08N140W is producing a large area of showers and \nisolated thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds \nand rough seas are found from 04N to 22N and west of 128W. In \nthe southern waters, moderate to fresh SE winds and rough seas \nare found south of 02N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or lighter \nand a decaying NW swell is found across much of the remainder of \nthe basin, supporting seas of 6-8 ft.\nFor the forecast, the aforementioned strong cold front will move\nacross the northern waters today into early Fri, bringing with \nit fresh to strong winds on either side of the front, and very \nlarge seas in NW swell north of 20N through Fri. Another cold\nfront will sweep across the area Fri into the weekend, bringing \neven larger reinforcing NW swell, possibly reaching 24 ft along \n30N. This set of swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will cover \nthe waters N of 05N and W of 110W by late Sat night, then \ncovering all of the waters W of 105W. Yet another set of large \nswell will arrive Sun, with seas of 8 ft or greater across the \nentire waters W of 105W by late Sun night. Meanwhile, the mixed \nswell over the equatorial waters will diminish by the weekend. \nLooking ahead, a cold front may move into the NW waters by the \nend of the weekend into early next week bringing a large area of \nfresh to strong winds behind it as high pressure builds in.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1226844168547237890", "issued": "2026-11-12T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1226844168547237890"}