{"id": "1226770186630987778", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-12T03:00:00Z", "msg": "682\nWTPA44 PHFO 120235\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  22\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Wed Nov 11 2026\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that Pena's convective structure has \nchanged little over the past several hours. Deep convection \ncontinues to burst intermittently over and mostly east of the \ncirculation center, with cloud-top temperatures as cold as -80 C. A \n1957 UTC Metop-B scatterometer pass revealed a highly asymmetric \nwind field, with the strongest winds over the northern semicircle, \ngenerally ranging from 30 to 35 kt. Given the steady satellite \npresentation and similar subjective and objective intensity \nestimates ranging from 30 to 40 kt, the initial intensity is held at \n40 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is westward, or 270/13 kt. Track guidance remains \nin good agreement over the next several days and shows Pena \ncontinuing westward as a strong low- to mid-level ridge remains to \nthe north. The steering layer is expected to become increasingly \nshallow over the next few days as Pena gradually weakens. The latest \nNHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous \nprediction.\n \nDespite warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear, \nincreasingly dry mid-level air is expected to contribute to a steady \nweakening trend beginning late tonight or early Thursday. Global \nmodels generally support this scenario and indicate that Pena will \nstruggle to maintain persistent or organized deep convection as it \nweakens and eventually opens into a trough shortly after crossing \nthe International Date Line into the western Pacific by early \nSaturday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to the \nprevious prediction and remains near the middle of the guidance \nenvelope.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  12/0300Z  9.8N 170.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z  9.9N 172.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  13/0000Z 10.0N 175.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  13/1200Z 10.1N 178.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  14/0000Z 10.3N 179.1E   30 KT  35 MPH\n 60H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}