{"msg": "889\nAXNT20 KNHC 112132\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Thu Nov 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1900 UTC.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N14W southwestward to 05.5N21W.\nThe ITCZ extends from 05.5N21W to just NE of the coast of Brazil \nat 03N48W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 12N\nbetween Africa and 20W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak trough over the western Gulf is inducing scattered \nmoderate convection offshore the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as\nwell as offshore NE Mexico. Moderate NW winds are found W of the\ntrough over the western Gulf nearshore waters. Elsewhere, mainly \nhigh pressure dominates, with gentle NE winds, along with seas of \n3 ft or less, except to 4 ft W of the trough.\nFor the forecast, a strong cold front will reach the Texas coast \nearly on Thu, then sweep across the basin through Thu night \nexiting the area early on Fri. Fresh to locally strong north winds\nand building seas are expected in its wake. High pressure will \nbuild southward into the region this weekend, with increasing \neasterly winds as the high shifts eastward Sun. Strong east winds \nare likely across portions of the northern Gulf starting on Sun as\nthe pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching weather \nsystem, with an associated cold front that will move offshore the \nTexas coast by Mon morning. The strong east winds will shift to \nmostly the NE Gulf Mon and Mon night as the front and a trough \ntranslate eastward across the Gulf.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of\nthe region and lower pressure over South America is leading to\nfresh to strong trades over the central portion of the basin from\n11N to 18N, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except \nweaker near the coast of Central America and in the NW Caribbean. \nSeas are 6 to 8 ft in the central Caribbean from 11N to 18N, and \n4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 2 to 4 ft over the NW Caribbean. \nScattered moderate convection is noted in the NW basin between\nCuba and Honduras and Belize due to upper-level divergence.\nFor the forecast, fresh to strong trades and locally rough seas \nwill prevail over the south-central Caribbean into Thu night, with\nmainly moderate winds and seas elsewhere. The pressure gradient \nwill weaken starting Fri as a cold front approaches the Yucatan \nChannel, leading to a weakening of the trades. Moderate northeast \nto east winds and slightly building seas are likely behind this \nfront over the northwestern Caribbean this weekend.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front extends from 29N45W to 26N60W. Isolated showers are \nassociated with a pre-frontal trough N of 28N around 41W, \notherwise little sensible weather is associated with this front. \nTo the east, a cold front extends from the Iberian Peninsula\nthrough 31N11W to 22N41W. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong SW\nwinds prevail with moderate to fresh winds NW of the front to 26W.\nRough to very rough associated seas are found N of 20N and E of\n37W. Upper-level divergence is leading to scattered to numerous \nmoderate convection N of the Greater Antilles to 26N, between 63W\nand 74W. Across the remainder of the waters, weak high pressure \nis leading to moderate or weaker winds and mainly moderate seas. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front is expected to \nmove off the southeastern U.S. coast Thu night accompanied by \nfresh to strong winds and building seas on either side of it. The \nfront is expected to reach from near 31N64W to eastern Cuba by Sat\nafternoon, and from near 30N55W to 25N64W and stationary to \neastern Cuba by early on Sun. Fresh to strong southwest winds will\nbe east of the cold front along with seas possibly peaking to \naround 12 ft on Sat. The cold front portion will shift east of 55W\nlate Sun while the stationary portion weakens. Fresh to strong \nnortheast winds are expected north of the stationary front to near\n28N through Mon night. \n\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1226710509475725314", "issued": "2026-11-11T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1226710509475725314"}