{"id": "1226698898628345858", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-11T21:00:00Z", "msg": "374\nWTPA44 PHFO 112033\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  21\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Wed Nov 11 2026\n \nOver the last several hours, the structure of Pena has degraded and \nthe most recent visible satellite imagery shows that the low-level \ncenter is exposed and to the southwest of the bulk of the \nconvection. The low-level center is moving faster toward the west \nthan the mid-level circulation, which is why the bulk of the deep \nconvection is now located well to the east-northeast of the center. \nThe current subjective Dvorak fixes from both JTWC and HFO are \nT2.5/35 kt, however the UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are \nin the range of 27-42 kt. The initial intensity is being held at 40 \nkt for this advisory, which could be a little generous at this time.\n \nPena's current motion is estimated to be 265/14 kt. High pressure \ncentered over the subtropical Central Pacific continues to be the \nmain steering mechanism, however the system is starting to \naccelerate westward and should continue to accelerate over the next \ncouple of days. The current NHC track is similar to the previous \ntrack, with a small adjustment to the left of the previous track \nbased on a blend of the GDMI and HCCA forecast aids. \n \nThe current environment for Pena still has very warm waters, a good \namount of moisture, and low vertical wind shear, but given the poor \ninitial structure, strengthening is not expected. Instead, the \ncyclone is likely to maintain its intensity through tonight. By \nThursday, a general weakening trend is expected as shear increases \nslightly and environmental moisture decreases slightly. These less \nfavorable conditions are expected to persist over the system and the \naforementioned increase in forward speed should result in the \ndissipation within the next few days, as the storm degrades into an \nopen trough. Some model guidance indicates that dissipation could \noccur sooner than the current forecast indicates. The current NHC \nintensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, with \ndissipation moved up to 60 h, based on the model surface fields. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  11/2100Z  9.9N 169.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  12/0600Z 10.0N 171.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  12/1800Z 10.2N 174.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  13/0600Z 10.5N 177.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  13/1800Z 10.6N 179.6E   30 KT  35 MPH\n 60H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}