{"msg": "286\nAXPZ20 KNHC 111906\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Wed Nov 11 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1900 UTC.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure in the\nCaribbean Sea at 10.5N74.5W to across Costa Rica to 09.5N84.5W \nto 04.5N100.5W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N100.5W to 06.5N136.5W \nto 1010 mb low pressure near 08.5N139.5W. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is observed from 00N to 04.5N between \n78.5W and 82.5W, from 00.5N to 08N between 106W and 118W, and \nfrom 00N to 13N between 128W and 140W. Similar convection is \nfound from 12N to 15.5N between 115.5W and 120W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nHigh pressure north of the area continues to support fresh to\nnear strong northerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft across the Gulf \nof Tehuantepec. Meanwhile, broad ridging extends southeastward \nacross the Baja California waters to the Revillagigedo Islands, \nallowing for mainly light to gentle winds in the rest of the \nMexican offshore waters, except moderate in the Gulf of \nCalifornia where the pressure gradient is slightly tighter.\nDecaying long-period NW swell is producing seas of 7-9 ft in the\noffshore waters of Baja California. Elsewhere, slight to \nmoderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 \nft will pulse to strong at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec \nthrough the remainder of the week. The next Tehuantepec gap wind\nevent may occur early next week, with winds at least to near \ngale-force by Mon night. Decaying rough seas in NW swell in the \nBaja California waters will diminish through tonight. Fresh to \nlocally strong winds and a new batch of rough seas approaching \n12 ft are expected to reach the offshore waters of Baja \nCalifornia by early Fri, associated with a frontal system. Fresh \nto locally strong winds may also briefly impact the northern Gulf\nof California Fri. Meanwhile, a larger NW swell arriving Sat \nwill produce high seas to 20 ft. Rough seas will reach all the \nway to past 100W by early next week, while additional and \nreinforcing NW swell sets continue to arrive. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA broad subtropical ridge centered over the Gulf of America and\nthe western Atlantic extends southward and is supporting moderate\nto fresh NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo\nregion. Farther east, winds have diminished in the Gulf of \nPanama. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are\nprevalent, except locally rough seas SW of the Galapagos Islands\nin merging long period SW and NW swells.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will funnel across \nthe Papagayo region and extend to 90W through Thu. Moderate to \nfresh winds may return to the Papagayo region by the end of the \nweekend into early next week, possibly reaching strong speeds by\nlate Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in \nthe Gulf of Panama tonight, and then again by the end of the \nweekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in\nmerging SW and NW swell will prevail, except locally rough SSW \nof the Galapagos Islands through the week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA cold front has pushed into the far NW waters in the past few\nhours just SE of 30N140W. Fresh to strong winds and building\nrough seas in NW swell are found on either side of the front. To\nthe S, broad lower pressures are analyzed along the monsoon \ntrough over the W-central waters. Active nearby convection is \ndescribed above with the monsoon trough section. The pressure \ngradient between these lower pressures and broad ridging in place\nahead of the cold front is supporting moderate to fresh winds \nfrom roughly 12N to 20N to the W of 125W. Winds are moderate or \nweaker across the remainder of the open waters, locally fresh S \nof the Equator and W of 100W. Meanwhile, old and decaying long-\nperiod NW swell with seas of 7-10 ft covers most the waters N of \n05N and W of 108W. Merging SW and NW long- period swells support\nseas of 7-10 ft across the waters S of 05N and W of 95W.\nFor the forecast, high pressure combined with lower pressure \nover the W-central waters will support moderate to locally strong\neasterly winds and rough seas across the trade waters through \nthe rest of the week. A strong cold front will move across the\nnorthern waters tonight into Thu, bringing with it fresh to \nstrong winds on either side of the front, and very large seas in \nNW swell north of 20N through the end of the week. Even larger \nreinforcing NW swell may arrive Fri afternoon to the NW waters, \npossibly reaching 25 ft along 30N. This set of swell with seas of\n8 ft or greater will cover the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by \nlate Sat night, then covering all of the waters W of 105W. Yet \nanother set of large swell will arrive Sun, with seas of 8 ft or \ngreater across the entire waters W of 105W by late Sun night. \nMeanwhile, the mixed swell over the equatorial waters will also \npersist and mix with the NW swells for the next several days. \nLooking ahead, a cold front may move into the NW waters by the \nend of the weekend into early next week bringing a large area of \nfresh to strong winds behind it as high pressure builds in.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1226681936113303554", "issued": "2026-11-11T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1226681936113303554"}