{"id": "1226628783650111490", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-11T15:00:00Z", "msg": "446\nWTPA44 PHFO 111436\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  20\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Wed Nov 11 2026\n \nPena continues to maintain a marginal amount of convection near the \ncenter and to the north during the last several hours. The cyclone \ncontinues to appear very disorganized with the most recent \nsubjective Dvorak fixes from both JTWC and HFO at T2.5/35 kt, while \nthe UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are in the range of 30-51 \nkt. Therefore, the initial intensity for Pena has been held at 40 kt \nfor this advisory.\n \nPena's motion is estimated to be 250/8 kt. The storm is currently \nbeing steered by a high pressure ridge centered over the subtropical \nCentral Pacific. This high should cause Pena to  accelerate westward \nover the next couple of days. The current NHC track forecast is \nsimilar to the previous one with some minor adjustments to nudge the \ntrack southward. These adjustments are based on a blend of the GDMI \nand the HCCA forecast aids.  \n \nWhile Pena is over very warm waters with a good amount of \nenvironmental moisture, the cyclone is still being negatively \naffected by some westerly shear that is undercutting it. The current \nmodel guidance suggests that the environment will not change much \nfor the next day or so, thus the current NHC intensity forecast \nkeeps the storm at the same strength for the next 24 h. After which, \na small increase in shear and a decrease in moisture should take \nhold by Thursday, which in turn should allow for weakening to occur. \nWith the unfavorable factors persisting over the system and its \nincreasing forward speed, it could dissipate within a few days. \nGenerally, the current NHC intensity forecast is mostly the same as \nthe previous forecast, except for a small adjustment to weaken the \nstorm sooner at 48 h. This forecast is in good agreement with the \nmajority of the current guidance, including the GDMI and HCCA \nforecast aids. \n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  11/1500Z  9.9N 167.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  12/0000Z 10.0N 169.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  12/1200Z 10.2N 172.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  13/0000Z 10.5N 175.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  13/1200Z 10.8N 178.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 60H  14/0000Z 10.9N 178.4E   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}