{"id": "1226558000123510786", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-11T09:00:00Z", "msg": "187\nWTPA44 PHFO 110836\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  19\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Tue Nov 10 2026\n \nConvection continues to wax and wane near Pena, with most of the\ncurrent activity well north of the center.  A WSFM microwave pass\nand a SAR pass from a few hours ago showed the system was moving \nsouth of west, and all of the tropical-storm-force winds were\nnorth of the center.  The current intensity is kept at 40 kt,\nconsistent with the SAR data and just above a recently received \nASCAT scatterometer pass.\n \nPena's motion is estimated to be 260/8 kt. The cyclone continues to\nbe steered by a high pressure ridge centered over the subtropical \nCentral Pacific, and the high should cause the storm to accelerate \nwestward during the next few days.  The most notable change is that \nthe guidance has shifted slightly to the south, probably because \nthe storm is still losing latitude.  The new NHC track forecast is \nnudged in that direction, close to a blend of the Google DeepMind \nensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus models.\n \nDespite the storm being over very warm waters with decent mid-level\nhumidity values, there is some westerly shear noted below the\noutflow layer because of stronger low-level flow and weak mid- \nto upper-level flow. The environment is not expected to change much \nduring the next few days, but a small increase in shear and \ndecrease in moisture is noted by Thursday.  This should be enough \nto cause weakening by then, and the system could dissipate in a few \ndays while it is near the International Dateline due to a \npersistence of these unfavorable conditions, or an increase in \nforward speed that causes the weak cyclone to open up into a \ntrough.  The intensity forecast is reduced slightly from the last \none, and the dissipation time has been brought forward, similar to \nthe latest global model consensus solution.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  11/0900Z 10.1N 166.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  11/1800Z 10.0N 168.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  12/0600Z 10.2N 171.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  12/1800Z 10.6N 174.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  13/0600Z 11.0N 177.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  13/1800Z 11.4N 179.5E   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}