{"msg": "441\nAXPZ20 KNHC 110337\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Wed Nov 11 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0255 UTC.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N91W. The ITCZ\nstretches from 06N91W to 05N110W and to 09N132W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is found south of 15N and west of 105W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nThe tight pressure gradient between a 1021 mb high pressure \nsystem over the southern United States and lower pressures in the\ndeep tropics sustains fresh to strong northerly winds and seas \nof 5-7 ft across the Gulf of Tehuantepec basin. Meanwhile, broad \nridging extends southeastward across the Baja California waters to \nthe Revillagigedo Island, allowing for moderate or lighter winds. \nLong-period NW swell is producing seas of 8-12 ft in the offshore \nwaters of Baja California W and N of Cabo San Lazaro, with the \nhighest seas occurring W of Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere, slight to \nmoderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 \nft will pulse to strong to locally near gale-force at night \nacross the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the remainder of the week. \nRough seas in NW swell will continue across the Baja offshore \nwaters, then begin to diminish tonight through Thu. Looking \nahead, fresh winds and rough seas approaching 12 ft are expected\nto reach the offshore waters of Baja California by early Fri\nthrough the day, associated with a frontal system. Yet a larger \nNW swell arriving Sat will produce very rough seas to 20 ft. \nRough seas will reach all the way to near 100W by early next \nweek, while additional and reinforcing NW swell sets continue to \narrive.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nHigh pressure centered north of the Caribbean supports moderate to \nfresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-5 ft in the Gulf of \nPapagayo region. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are \noccurring in the Gulf of Panama to near the Azuero Peninsula. \nElsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds \nwill funnel across the Papagayo region and extend to 90W through \nWed night, then diminish for the end of the week into the \nweekend. Moderate to fresh winds may return to the Papagayo\nregion by the end of the weekend into early next week. Moderate \nto locally fresh winds will pulse in the western Gulf of Panama \nthrough Wed morning, then again by the end of the weekend. \nOtherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in merging \nSW and NW swell will prevail, except locally rough SSW of the \nGalapagos Islands through the week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA surface trough in the western trade waters supports scattered\nshowers and isolated thunderstorms. The rest of the tropical\neastern Pacific waters is under a broad subtropical ridge. The\npressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the\ndeep tropics supports fresh to locally strong easterly trade\nwinds and seas of 8-11 ft from 10N to 25N and west of 120W.\nModerate to fresh SE winds and rough seas are found south of 03N\nand between 100W and 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds\nand seas of 5-8 ft prevail.\nFor the forecast, high pressure combined with troughing over the\nW-central waters will support moderate to fresh easterly winds \nand rough seas across the trade waters during the next few days. \nNew large NW swell moving into the north and western waters will \nreach from 10N140W to the Revillagigedo Islands tonight. The \nmixed swell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next \nseveral days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will reach our \nNW border at 30N140W by midday Wed, bringing with it fresh to \nstrong winds on either side of the front, and very large seas in\nNW swell north of 20N through the end of the week. Even larger \nreinforcing NW swell may arrive Fri afternoon to the NW waters, \npossibly in excess of 20 ft. This set of swell with seas of 8 ft \nor greater will cover the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by late \nSat night, then covering all of the waters W of 105W.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1226499207601258498", "issued": "2026-11-11T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1226499207601258498"}