{"id": "1226486568217509890", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-11T03:00:00Z", "msg": "006\nWTPA44 PHFO 110232\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  18\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Tue Nov 10 2026\n \nDeep convection near and over Pena's center has persisted most of \nthe day today. Previously, there was some doubt about whether Pena's \ncirculation was closed due to a lack of scatterometry or microwave \ndata. However, ASCAT data from around 2015 UTC confirmed the \npresence of a closed (if not broad) circulation with peak winds of \n35 to 40 kt, indicating Pena remains a tropical storm. Given the \nASCAT data and recent objective satellite estimates, the initial \nintensity is raised slightly to 40 kt.\n\nPena's motion is estimated to be 270/8 kt. The cyclone continues to \nbe steered by a high pressure ridge centered to the north of Pena. \nTrack guidance depicts the cyclone gradually turning to the \nwest-northwest over the next day or so, picking up forward speed as \nit gains latitude as well. The latest NHC track guidance is \nessentially unchanged from the previous advisory, with the main \nadjustments being to the system's forward speed through the forecast \nperiod. \n \nThe ASCAT data confirmed that Pena has an intact circulation, and \nenvironmental conditions are conducive for marginal near term \nstrengthening. However, Pena's dissipation time has been moved up 24 \nhours once again, in alignment with global models. As Pena gains \nlatitude, it is expected to enter a more hostile environment, and \nglobal models generally depict the cyclone opening up into a trough \nduring the day either Thursday or Friday. The latest NHC intensity \nforecast generally follows HCCA guidance in allowing for some slight \nstrengthening for Pena over the next day, before showing a gradual \nweakening cycle through the end of the week as the system encounters \ndrier air, increasing vertical wind shear, and cooler SSTs.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  11/0300Z 10.5N 166.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 10.4N 167.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  12/0000Z 10.4N 169.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  12/1200Z 10.8N 172.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  13/0000Z 11.2N 176.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  13/1200Z 11.6N 179.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  14/0000Z 12.0N 178.1E   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}