{"id": "1226418181699665922", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-10T21:00:00Z", "msg": "427\nWTPA44 PHFO 102045\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  17\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Tue Nov 10 2026\n\nSatellite imagery over the last couple of hours shows Pena's \nconvective shield expanding. With how large the system's deep \nconvection is, however, it is difficult to track Pena's inner vortex \nand thus fully assess the cyclone's strength. SAR microwave imagery \nfrom around 1630 UTC shows little organization under the convection, \nand recent visible images suggest the low-level center lies near the \nwestern edge of the convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak \nestimates are also relatively steady since the last advisory, with \nHFO at 2.5/35 kt and UW-CIMSS between 30-40 kt, respectively. As a \nresult of these data, the initial intensity is held steady at 35 kt.\n \nPena's motion has turned west-southwest at around 8 kt. The \ncyclone's motion continues to be steered by a high pressure ridge \nanchored to storm's northwest. Track guidance has Pena continuing on \nthis motion for the rest of the day, before the skillful guidance \nturns it back to the west tomorrow and then to the west-northwest \nlater in the week. The latest NHC track forecast is shifted to the \nright slightly, as skilled guidance such as the HCCA and GDMI are \nmore aggressive in depicting Pena's turn to the northwest, but \noverall reflects a middle ground solution between these two models \nand the previous advisory.\n \nAs it has been stated over the past few days, Pena's intensity \nforecast remains challenging, as the overall environment suggests \nfavorable conditions for strengthening, yet Pena has held steady all \nthe while. What little data that's available in depicting Pena's \nstructure implies that the storm's central vortex lacks structure, \nwhich has hindered opportunities for intensification. In fact, it is \nentirely possible that Pena currently lacks a closed low-level \ncirculation, however this is hard to confirm without a complete \nscatterometer pass. As a result of this uncertainty, Pena's \nintensity forecast has been held flat over the next several days, \nwith the possibility that the system could be declared a remnant low \nlater today. Should scatterometer data confirm a closed circulation, \nhowever, Pena could experience at least modest strengthening, given \nits environment of warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear, and ample \nmid-level moisture.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  10/2100Z 10.8N 165.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 10.7N 166.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 10.6N 169.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  12/0600Z 10.8N 172.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  12/1800Z 11.3N 175.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  13/0600Z 11.9N 179.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  13/1800Z 12.4N 178.2E   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  14/1800Z 12.5N 174.0E   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}