{"msg": "056\nAXPZ20 KNHC 102028\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Tue Nov 10 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2000 UTC.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1011 mb low pressure along the\ncoast of NW Colombia at 10.5N75W to across portions of Panama \nand Costa Rica to near the Gulf of Papagayo at 10.5N86W to 1011 \nmb low pressure at 10N95W to 06N96W. The ITCZ extends from 06N96W\nto 04N110W to 04.5N120W to 08N130W. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 10N between \n103W and 119W, and from 00N to 10N between 119W and 140W. \nScattered moderate convection is noted from 03.4S to 02.5N \nbetween 79W and 83W. \nA surface trough is located W of the ITCZ, analyzed from 14N123W\nto 1012 mb low pressure at 13N125W to 05.5N140W. Scattered\nmoderate to strong convection is noted within 90-180 nm of the\ntrough and low.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nThe tight pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high pressure\nsystem over the southern United States and lower pressures in \nthe deep tropics sustains fresh to strong northerly winds and \nseas of 5-7 ft across the Gulf of Tehuantepec basin. Meanwhile,\nbroad ridging extends southeastward across the Baja California\nwaters to the Revillagigedo Islands, mainly light to gentle \nwinds across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, except\nmoderate NW winds in the NW Gulf of California. Long-period NW \nswell is producing seas of 7-10 ft in the offshore waters of \nBaja California W and N of Cabo San Lazaro, with the highest \nseas occurring W of Guadalupe island. Elsewhere, slight to \nmoderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 \nft will pulse to strong to locally near gale-force at night \nacross the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the remainder of the week. \nRough seas in NW swell will continue across the Baja offshore \nwaters, then begin to diminish tonight through Thu. Looking \nahead, fresh winds and rough seas approaching 12 ft are expected\nto reach the offshore waters of Baja California by early Fri\nthrough the day, associated with a frontal system. Yet a larger \nNW swell arriving Sat will produce very rough seas to 19 ft. \nRough seas will reach all the way to near 100W by early next \nweek, while additional and reinforcing NW swell sets continue to\narrive.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nHigh pressure centered north of the the Caribbean supports\nmoderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft in the\nGulf of Papagayo region. Moderate northerly winds and seas of \n3-5 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Panama to near the Azuero\nPeninsula. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas\nprevail.\nFor the forecast, fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds \nwill funnel across the Papagayo region and extend to 90W through \nWed night, then diminish for the end of the week into the \nweekend. Moderate to fresh winds may return to the Papagayo\nregion by the end of the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh \nwinds will pulse in the western Gulf of Panama through Wed \nmorning, then again by the end of the weekend. Otherwise, \nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in merging SW and NW \nswell will prevail, except locally rough SSW of the Galapagos \nIslands through the week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nBroad high pressure covers the northern waters. A surface trough\nis to the south analyzed from trough from 14N123W to 1012 mb low\npressure at 13N125W to 05.5N140W. Nearby convection is active as\ndescribed with the monsoon trough/ITCZ above. The pressure \ngradient between the ridging and trough supports moderate to \nfresh winds from 11N to 21N to the NW of the trough. Moderate or\nweaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters, locally\nfresh S of the Equator. Rough NW swell with heights of 8-11 ft \ncovers the majority of the waters N of 09N and W of 115W as\nmeasured by recent altimeter data. Merging SW and NW swell \nsupports rough seas of 7-10 ft S of 08N between 100W and 128W. \nModerate seas prevail across the remainder of the open waters.\nFor the forecast, high pressure combined with troughing over the\nW-central waters will support moderate to fresh easterly winds \nand rough seas across the trade waters during the next few days. \nNew large NW swell moving into the north and western waters will \nreach from 10N140W to the Revillagigedo Islands tonight. The \nmixed swell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next \nseveral days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will reach our \nNW border at 30N140W by midday Wed, bringing with it fresh to \nstrong winds on either side of the front, and very large seas in\nNW swell north of 20N through the end of the week. Even larger \nreinforcing NW swell may arrive Fri afternoon to the NW waters, \npossibly in excess of 20 ft. This set of swell with seas of 8 ft \nor greater will cover the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by late \nSat night, then covering all of the waters W of 105W.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1226414804932395010", "issued": "2026-11-10T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1226414804932395010"}