{"id": "1226346996997259266", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z", "msg": "381\nWTPA44 PHFO 101443\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  16\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Tue Nov 10 2026\n \nModerate southwesterly wind shear is affecting Pena this morning. A \nswirl of low clouds in evident on proxy-vis satellite imagery, \nalthough it is unclear whether this feature represents the low-level \ncenter emerging from beneath the core of the deep convection or is \nsimply a transient feature. Earlier microwave imagery suggested that \nthe center could be located farther north. Consequently, the initial \nlocation is more uncertain that usual, but has been adjusted \nsouthward. Deep convection persists, with cloud top temperatures \ncolder than -80 C evident within the convective overcast. Recent \nobjective and subjective intensity estimates range from 31-45 kt. \nBased on the recent satellite presentation, the initial intensity \nis maintained at 35 kt for this advisory. \n\nPena is moving westward around 10 kt, steered by a low to mid-level \nridge centered to the northwest of the cyclone, west of the \nInternational Date Line (IDL). This general motion is expected to \ncontinue over the next couple of days, followed by a slight increase \nin forward speed as a shortwave trough impinges on the ridge and \nprogresses eastward. The official NHC forecast calls for Pena to \ncross the IDL late this week. Owing to the southward adjustment of \nthe initial position, the track forecast has been shifted to the \nleft of the previous forecast and is near the center of the track \nguidance. \n\nDespite moving over warm sea surface temperatures and within a moist \nmid-level environment, Pena has struggled to develop a deep, \nvertically aligned structure. Vertical wind shear could decrease \nover the next several days, potentially allowing for modest \nintensity fluctuations. However, only a few intensity models support \nany meaningful strengthening during this period. Later this week, an \nincreasingly dry mid-level environment and a modest increase in wind \nshear are expected to promote weakening, and it is possible that \nPena could degenerate into a remnant low or open into a trough \nbefore that time. The latest NHC forecast intensity remains \nunchanged through 72 h, and is near the middle of the guidance \nenvelope. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  10/1500Z 11.1N 164.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 10.8N 166.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 10.6N 168.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  12/0000Z 10.6N 171.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  12/1200Z 11.0N 174.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  13/0000Z 11.5N 177.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  13/1200Z 11.8N 179.9E   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  14/1200Z 12.5N 174.8E   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  15/1200Z 12.9N 170.8E   30 KT  35 MPH\n \n"}