{"id": "1226328328238235650", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-10T09:00:00Z", "msg": "871\nWTPA44 PHFO 100836\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  15\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Mon Nov 09 2026\n \nSatellite imagery indicates that the convective structure associated \nwith Pena has changed little over the past several hours. Deep \nconvection has remained mostly confined to the northeastern and \neastern portions of the circulation, due to moderate \nsouth-southwesterly vertical wind shear. A recent scatterometer pass \nshowed a somewhat elongated low-level circulation and a highly \nasymmetric wind field, with the strongest winds located in the \nnortheastern quadrant. The latest subjective and objective intensity \nestimates remain in the 30 to 45 kt range. Given these estimates and \nthe relatively steady satellite presentation, the initial intensity \nis held at 35 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is westward, or 270/12 kt. This general motion is \nexpected to continue during the next 48 h as a low- to mid-level \nridge builds to the north, with the center of Pena forecast to pass \nseveral hundred n mi south of Johnston Atoll. Thereafter, a gradual \nturn toward the west-northwest is forecast as a weakness develops in \nthe ridge in response to a shortwave trough moving across the \nnorthwestern Pacific. The latest NHC track forecast has been shifted \nsouthward from the previous prediction toward the latest HCCA and \nGDMI aids.\n\nModerate south-southwesterly vertical wind shear and possibly some \ndrier mid-level air continue to limit Pena's ability to strengthen. \nAlthough guidance indicates that the shear should decrease somewhat \nduring the next 12 to 24 h, only a few intensity models support \nmodest strengthening over the next few days. Sea surface \ntemperatures near 29 C are expected to persist along the forecast \ntrack. However, increasingly dry mid-level air beginning around 60 h \nand strengthening southwesterly vertical wind shear toward the end \nof the period should inhibit intensification. Given these factors, \nlittle overall change in intensity is forecast, although some \nfluctuations in strength are certainly possible. Pena could still \ndegenerate into a remnant low or open into a trough, particularly \nlater in the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is \nunchanged from the previous prediction and lies near the middle of \nthe guidance envelope.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  10/0900Z 11.7N 163.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 11.5N 165.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 11.2N 167.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 11.1N 170.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  12/0600Z 11.3N 173.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  12/1800Z 11.8N 176.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  13/0600Z 12.3N 179.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  14/0600Z 13.1N 175.2E   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  15/0600Z 13.5N 171.1E   35 KT  40 MPH\n \n"}