{"id": "1226203153147559939", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-10T03:00:00Z", "msg": "659\nWTPA44 PHFO 100231\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  14\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Mon Nov 09 2026\n \nPena continues to be poorly organized this afternoon, with a\nloosely defined low-level circulation located on the western edge of\nthe deep convection. Unfortunately, recent scatterometer passes\nmissed the system, leaving some uncertainty regarding the current\nsurface wind field. Based on earlier SAR data and a relatively\nsteady-state satellite appearance, the initial intensity is held at\n35 kt for this advisory.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be 275/12 kt. Pena is forecast to\ncontinue moving generally westward, steered by a low- to mid-level\nridge located to its north in the central Pacific. This ridge is\nexpected to weaken in response to an approaching shortwave trough,\nwhich should result in a more northwestward motion. The updated NHC\ntrack forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies\nnear the HCCA and the Google DeepMind aids.\n \nAlthough environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable with\nwarm sea surface temperatures and abundant mid-level moisture, Pena\ncontinues to struggle to organize due to persistent mid-level wind\nshear, and not being able to establish an inner core. Toward the end\nof the forecast period, dry air is anticipated to entrain into the\ncirculation, which could cause the system to degenerate into a\nremnant low sooner than currently indicated. The NHC intensity\nforecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, and\nshort-term fluctuations in strength are likely. While it is possible\nthat Pena could open up into a surface trough due to its fast\nforward speed and the aforementioned shear, the official forecast\nmaintains it as a tropical cyclone through the end of the period.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  10/0300Z 11.7N 162.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 11.7N 164.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 11.4N 166.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 11.3N 168.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  12/0000Z 11.6N 171.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  12/1200Z 12.0N 175.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  13/0000Z 12.8N 178.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  14/0000Z 14.0N 176.2E   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  15/0000Z 14.6N 172.2E   35 KT  40 MPH\n \n"}