{"id": "1226134827312906243", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-09T21:00:00Z", "msg": "930\nWTPA44 PHFO 092044\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  13\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Mon Nov 09 2026\n \n \nThere has been little change in Tropical Storm Pena's organization. \nIn fact, based on the first several visible satellite images of the \nday, it appears the low-level circulation is poorly organized and \npotentially open on the western side of the system. This would agree \nwith an analysis of scatterometer and microwave data discussed in \nthe previous advisory. Additionally, a new RCM2 Synthetic Aperture \nRadar (SAR) overpass shows the low-level center well west of the \ndeep convection and the max wind band. The wind radii and center \nposition have been updated accordingly. Based on the SAR data and \nsatellite intensity estimates, Pena is maintained as a 35 kt \ntropical storm for this advisory, though this could be generous.\n \nThe initial motion is analyzed as 270/10 kt, with the forward motion \nsomewhat uncertain due to the new initial position. Pena is forecast \nto continue generally westward over the next couple of days as it is \nsteered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. Beyond 48 h, the \ncyclone should turn gradually toward the west-northwest and \naccelerate as a weakness develops in the ridge due to a shortwave \ntrough moving across the northwestern Pacific. The track guidance \ncontinues to remain in good agreement on this scenario, and no \nsignificant changes were made to the track forecast.\n \nPena is no longer forecast to intensify, despite somewhat favorable \nenvironmental conditions. This general philosophy agrees with the \ncurrent broad structure of the system, which appears unlikely to \nimprove based on the latest dynamical model fields. Toward the end \nof the forecast period, vertical wind shear is expected to increase \nout of the west-southwest, which, combined with increasingly dry \nmid-level air, could allow Pena to dissipate or become a remnant \nlow. For continuity, however, Pena is shown as a tropical cyclone \nthrough the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast lies\nnear the middle of the guidance envelope.\n \nGiven that multiple independent data sources continue to suggest\nthat Pena is losing organization, it remains possible that Pena\ndissipates within the next couple of days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  09/2100Z 11.5N 161.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 11.5N 163.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 11.2N 165.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 11.1N 167.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 11.2N 170.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  12/0600Z 11.6N 173.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  12/1800Z 12.3N 176.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  13/1800Z 13.7N 177.5E   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  14/1800Z 14.6N 173.3E   35 KT  40 MPH\n \n"}