{"id": "1226061937643126787", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-09T15:00:00Z", "msg": "656\nWTPA44 PHFO 091433\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  12\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Mon Nov 09 2026\n  \nSince the previous advisory, Pena appears to have become less \norganized. An ASCAT-B scatterometer pass sampled the system around \n0830 UTC, finding peak winds to around 35 kt, but indicating the \nlow-level circulation has opened up into a trough. A 1044 UTC \nOSCAT-3 overpass, which often inflates surface wind speed \nsignificantly in heavy rain, also reported peak winds to 35 kt. A \njust-received AMSR3 microwave pass, which sampled Pena around 1204 \nUTC, appears to confirm the findings from ASCAT-B that Pena may have \nopened into a trough and is losing convective organization. Based on \nthese data, and the possibility of Pena being poorly defined at the \nsurface, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this \nadvisory.\n \nThe initial motion is analyzed as 265/8 kt, just south of due west. \nPena is forecast to continue generally westward over the next couple \nof days as it is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. \nBeyond 48 h, the cyclone should turn gradually toward the \nwest-northwest and accelerate as a weakness develops in the ridge \ndue to a shortwave trough moving across the northwestern Pacific. \nThe track guidance continues to remain in good agreement on this \nscenario, and no significant changes were made to the track \nforecast.\n \nThe intensity guidance is finally converging on a solution that is \nreflected in the new official forecast: Pena could intensify a \nlittle by 36 h, but it is not forecast to intensify at all \nthereafter. Some intensity guidance still shows weakening and \ndissipation during the next couple of days. It is unclear why, in a \ngenerally favorable environment, Pena has struggled to intensify, \nexcept for low-level and vertical structural challenges. Toward the \nend of the forecast period, vertical wind shear is expected to \nincrease out of the west-southwest, which, combined with \nincreasingly dry mid-level air, should allow Pena to weaken. The \nlatest NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the last forecast \nand lies near the middle- to upper-end of the guidance envelope.\n \nGiven multiple independent data sources suggest that Pena is no \nlonger well-organized at the surface, it is possible that Pena \ndissipates as soon as later today.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  09/1500Z 11.4N 159.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 11.4N 161.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 11.3N 163.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 11.1N 165.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 11.1N 168.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  12/0000Z 11.4N 170.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  12/1200Z 12.0N 173.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  13/1200Z 13.4N 180.0E   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  14/1200Z 14.7N 175.3E   35 KT  40 MPH\n \n"}