{"id": "1225992442156974083", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-09T09:00:00Z", "msg": "216\nWTPA44 PHFO 090839\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  11\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Sun Nov 08 2026\n \nSatellite imagery indicates that the convective structure associated \nwith Pena has changed little over the past several hours. Deep \nconvection has mostly remained confined to intermittent bursts near \nand north of the circulation, likely due to light to moderate \nsoutherly vertical wind shear affecting it. The latest subjective \nand objective intensities remain in the 35 to 45 kt range. Given \nthese intensities and the steady satellite presentation, the initial \nintensity is held at 40 kt. \n \nThe initial motion is westward, or 270/8 kt. This general motion is \nexpected to continue during the next 48 to 60 h as a low- to \nmid-level ridge builds to the north. Thereafter, a gradual turn \ntoward the west-northwest is forecast as a weakness develops in the \nridge in response to a shortwave trough moving across the \nnorthwestern Pacific. An increase in forward speed is expected \naround day 3 and should continue into day 4. Track guidance remains \nin good agreement during the next couple of days, but the \ncross-track spread increases thereafter, with some of the regional \nhurricane models maintaining a more westward track. In contrast, the \nGFS, ECMWF, and consensus aids support a gradual turn toward the \nwest-northwest. These differences could be partly related to how the \nmodels handle the cyclone's intensity, with weaker solutions \nbecoming increasingly steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track \nforecast is essentially unchanged from the previous prediction and \nlies near the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA). \n \nLight to moderate southerly vertical wind shear and potentially some \ndrier mid-level air appear to be limiting Pena's ability to \nstrengthen. Although guidance indicates that the shear should \ndecrease during the next 12 to 24 h, only a few intensity models \nsupport modest strengthening over the next several days, possibly \ndue to occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air. Toward the end of \nthe forecast period, vertical wind shear is expected to increase out \nof the west-southwest, which, combined with increasingly dry \nmid-level air, should favor some weakening. The latest NHC intensity \nforecast is very similar to the previous prediction and lies near \nthe middle to upper end of the guidance envelope. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  09/0900Z 11.3N 158.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 11.3N 160.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 11.2N 162.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 11.0N 164.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 11.0N 166.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  11/1800Z 11.1N 169.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  12/0600Z 11.4N 171.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  13/0600Z 12.8N 178.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  14/0600Z 14.3N 177.1E   40 KT  45 MPH\n \n"}