{"id": "1225922532291706883", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-09T03:00:00Z", "msg": "259\nWTPA44 PHFO 090244\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  10\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Sun Nov 08 2026\n \nA persistent burst of deep convection remains over the estimated \ncenter position of Pena this afternoon, with very cold cloud top \ntemperatures of less than -80 C observed within the CDO. However, a \nseparate area of convection persists to the east of the primary \nconvective burst, suggesting that the tropical storm continues to \nstruggle with consolidating its inner core. An earlier ASCAT-C pass \nand GPM microwave imagery indicated that Pena's center was located \nfarther south than previously estimated, and the initial position \nhas been adjusted accordingly. The latest subjective Dvorak \nintensity estimates range from T3.0/45 kt to T3.5/55 kt, while \nobjective intensity estimates range from 32-47 kt. Based on the \nlatest satellite imagery, the initial intensity is maintained at 40 \nkt for this advisory. \n \nPena is moving westward at 260/7 kt. Given the shallow nature of the \ntropical storm, its motion is being governed by a low- to mid-level \nridge centered northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. This general \nmotion is forecast to persist through the middle of the week. \nThereafter, Pena is forecast to turn west-northwestward and increase \nits forward speed as a new ridge builds to its north. The latest NHC \ntrack forecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous \nforecast to account for the southward adjustment of the initial \nposition, and is slightly faster, bringing it into closer alignment \nwith the latest HCCA guidance. \n\nDespite moving over very warm sea surface temperatures near 29 C and \nwithin an environment with low vertical wind shear and relatively \nmoist mid-level conditions, Pena has thus far been unable to \nestablish a well-defined inner core. A considerable spread remains \namong the dynamical and statistical guidance, although recent model \ncycles have gradually trended toward lower peak intensities. \nConsequently, the potential for significant strengthening appears to \nbe diminishing. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been lowered \nslightly around midweek and remains near the middle of the guidance \nenvelope. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  09/0300Z 11.4N 157.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 11.4N 159.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 11.3N 161.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 11.3N 163.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 11.2N 165.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  11/1200Z 11.1N 168.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  12/0000Z 11.3N 170.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  13/0000Z 12.6N 177.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  14/0000Z 14.4N 177.2E   40 KT  45 MPH\n \n"}