{"msg": "271\nAXPZ20 KNHC 082125\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sun Nov 8 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09.5N80W to 1007 mb low pres near \n11N88W then to 07N94W, where it transitions to ITCZ, continuing\non to 04.5N103W to 06.5N116W, where it breaks for a surface \ntrough. The ITCZ resumes at 08N131W and extends beyond 05.5N140W.\nScattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 06.5N to\n12.5N between 82W and 91W. Scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection is occurring from 02N to 07.5N between 105W and 113W,\nfrom 11.5N to 16.5N between 115W and 126W, and south of 02.5N \nbetween 127W and 133W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nHigh pressure over the Gulf of America and lower pressure with\nthe monsoon trough over the eastern Tropical Pacific is forcing \nfresh to strong N gap winds extending southward to near 14N, \nwith seas 7-9 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon. \nElsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high \noffshore of Southern California and lower pressure with a trough\nover the Gulf of California is forcing only gentle to moderate N\nto NE winds over the Pacific waters of Baja California, and \nmoderate to locally fresh N winds over the northern Gulf of \nCalifornia. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW swell over Pacific offshore \nwaters north of the Revillagigedo Islands, and 5-7 ft from Las \nTres Marias south and southeastward. Seas over the Gulf of \nCalifornia are 2-4 ft. \nFor the forecast, fresh to near gale- force northerly winds and \nrough seas to 8 ft will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through \nWed morning. Another gap wind event may develop in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec by Thu night, possibly reaching gale-force into the \nupcoming weekend. Moderate to large NW swell will impact the \nBaja California waters into early this week. Fresh to strong \nwinds and rough seas approaching 12 ft may reach the offshore \nwaters of Baja California late in the week, associated with a \nfrontal system.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA 1007 mb low - now denoted as Invest EP96 - is centered near \n11N88W, and drifting west-northwestward. Fresh to locally strong\nNE to E winds and seas to 8 ft within 90 NM of its center in the\nN semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is \nobserved within 90 nm of the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. \nElsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-7 ft in mixed\nSW and W swell.\nFor the forecast, some modest development of Invest EP96 is \npossible through Mon while the system drifts slowly northwestward\nand away from the coastline. Thereafter, environmental \nconditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional \ndevelopment as the system turns westward away from land. There is\na low chance for tropical cyclone development with this system.\nHowever, showers and thunderstorms will remain active this\nevening through at least Mon morning across the waters and along\nthe coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Fresh to strong winds \nwill funnel across the Papagayo region north of the invest area \nthis evening, then pulse at fresh to strong through early this \nweek. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of \nPanama through the middle of the week. Otherwise, moderate or \nweaker winds, and moderate seas, will prevail.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nRidging extends from a 1023 mb high near 34N128W southward into\nthe Tropical Pacific waters and southeastward to near the\nRevillagigedo Islands. The moderate pressure gradient between \nthe ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is forcing only \nmoderate to locally strong trades, with strongest winds occurring\nnorth of a surface trough from 09N126W to 15N122W. Scattered \nmoderate isolated strong convection is occurring near the trough\nfrom 11.5N to 16.5N between 115W and 126W. Large NW swell is \nreaching south to 09N and east of 110W this afternoon, producing\nseas of 8 to 14 ft, highest NW portions. Also, mixed SE and SW\nswell is merging with the NW swell to produce seas of 7-9 ft \nsouth of 05N and west of 96W.\nFor the forecast, the surface ridge will amplify some, \nincreasing the trades to fresh from 10N-22N west of 125W Mon \nnight into Wed. While the current NW swell will gradually \nsubside, another reinforcing pulse of swell will be entering the\nNW forecast waters later this afternoon and evening. The large \nNW swell will reach from 20N140W to 20N120W Tue night. The mixed\nswell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next \nseveral days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will reach our \nNW border at 30N140W Wed bringing with it fresh to strong NW \nwinds and very large seas north of 22N through at least Thu. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1225859925467463683", "issued": "2026-11-08T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1225859925467463683"}