{"msg": "561\nAXPZ20 KNHC 081459\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sun Nov 8 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1400 UTC.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica near 11N86W to\na 1007 mb low at 11N88W then to 06N97W. The ITCZ begins at 06N97W\nto 09N116W, where it breaks for a surface trough. The ITCZ\nrestarts at 06N129W and extends beyond 07N140W. Scattered\nmoderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 07N-14N\neast of 91W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from\n11N-15N between 118W-126W. Isolated moderate conveciton is \noccurring south of 06N between 106W-132W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nHigh pressure over the Gulf of America and lower pressure with\nthe monsoon trough is forcing a fresh to strong N to NE gap wind\nevent with seas 8-9 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning.\nElsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high \noffshore from California and lower pressure with a trough over \nthe Gulf of California is forcing only gentle to moderate N to NE\nwinds over the Pacific waters and moderate to locally fresh NW\nwinds over the Gulf of California. Seas are 8-10 ft in NW swell\nover Pacific waters south to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are\n5-7 ft from Cabo Corrientes southward. Seas over the Gulf of \nCalifornia are 2-4 ft. \nFor the forecast, fresh to near gale- force northerly winds and \nrough seas to 8 ft will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through \nTue night. Another gap wind event may develop in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec by Thu night, possibly reaching gale-force into the \nupcoming weekend. A moderate to large NW swell will impact the \nBaja California waters into early this week. Fresh to strong \nwinds and rough seas may reach the offshore waters of Baja \nCalifornia late in the week.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA 1007 mb low - now denoted as Invest EP96 - centered at 11N88W \nis producing fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 8 ft \nwithin 60 NM of its center in the N semicircle. Scattered \nmoderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 07N-14N \neast of 91W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas \n4-7 ft.\nFor the forecast, some development of Invest EP96 is possible \nover the next day or so while the system drifts slowly \nnorthwestward. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast \nto become unfavorable for additional development as the system \nturns westward away from land. There is a low chance for tropical\ncyclone development with this system. Fresh to strong winds will\nfunnel through the Gulf of Papagayo north of the invest area \ntoday, then pulse at fresh to strong through early this week. \nModerate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama \nthrough the middle of the week. Otherwise, moderate or weaker \nwinds, and moderate seas, will prevail.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nRidging extends from a 1022 mb high near 34N130W to 29N140W. The\nmoderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure\nin the ITCZ is forcing only moderate to locally strong trades. A\nsurface trough from 08N126W to 14N121W is not currently causing\nany noteworthy winds or seas, though scattered moderate \nconvection is occurring from 11N-15N between 118W-126W. Large, \nlong- period NW swell is reaching south to 10N and east of 115W \nthis morning. Also south of 02N west of 110W mixed NW and SE \nswell is forcing 8-9 ft seas.\nFor the forecast, the surface will amplify some, increasing the \ntrades to fresh from 10N-22N west of 125W Mon night into Wed. \nWhile the current NW swell will gradually diminish, another \nreinforcing swell will be entering our forecast waters later \ntoday. The large NW swell will reach from 20-N140W to 20N120W Tue\nnight. The mixed swell over the equatorial waters will persist \nfor the next several days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front \nwill reach our NW border at 30N140W Wed bringing with it fresh to\nstrong NW winds and very large seas north of 22N through at \nleast Thu. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1225783973799788547", "issued": "2026-11-08T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1225783973799788547"}