{"id": "1225779084610076675", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-08T15:00:00Z", "msg": "941\nWTPA44 PHFO 081434\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number   8\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Sun Nov 08 2026\n \nPena is producing deep convection near the center, with a trailing, \nbroken rain band displaced to the east. The overall convection is \nnot very organized and is more pulsing in nature. The low-level \ncenter remains elongated and is located on the western edge of the \nconvection. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates \nhave a large range, spanning between 33 and 55 kt. Given this large \nspread, and because there is more convection than this morning, the \ninitial intensity is held at 40 kt. A scatterometer pass is expected \nlater this morning or early this afternoon, which will help provide \na better assessment of the system's intensity and wind radii, and \nlow-level structure.\n \nThe storm is moving westward at an estimated 275/7 kt. A generally \nwestward motion is expected during the next several days as Pena is \nsteered by a low- to mid-level ridge anchored over the central \nPacific north of the system. This ridge will begin to slide \neastward, and a northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward \nspeed is anticipated through the end of the forecast period. The \nlatest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and \nlies near the HCCA and GDMI consensus aids.\n \nEnvironmental conditions remain favorable for strengthening, with \nwarm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, and abundant \nmid-level moisture. However, given the current lack of organization, \nit remains to be seen if the system can consolidate an inner core \nand intensify. There is some uncertainty as to whether the \ncirculation will survive or if the system will open up into a \ntrough. This is due to the increasing forward speed of the system \nand potentially inhibiting upper-level winds caused by outflow from \nmonsoon trough convection to the south. NWP, AI, and regional \nhurricane models are struggling with Pena and showing a wide variety \nof solutions with some models, particularly the regional hurricane \nmodels, show Pena dissipating before the end of the forecast period. \nThe latest NHC forecast maintains the system throughout the forecast \nperiod for now, holding the intensity steady over the next day or \nso, followed by gradual strengthening and minor fluctuations in \nintensity throughout the remainder of the forecast period. As a \nresult of the model spread, there is lower than normal confidence in \nthe intensity forecast.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  08/1500Z 11.6N 156.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 11.6N 157.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 11.6N 159.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 11.5N 161.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 11.4N 163.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  11/0000Z 11.3N 165.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  11/1200Z 11.2N 167.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  12/1200Z 11.6N 174.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  13/1200Z 13.6N 179.7E   45 KT  50 MPH\n \n"}