{"msg": "097\nAXPZ20 KNHC 080858\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sun Nov 8 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0835 UTC.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1008 mb low pres \nnear 10N86W and to 07N99W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N99W to\n11N119W and then from 10N122W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to \n14N and between 82W and 92W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nAn extensive subtropical ridge over the central United States \ncontinues to extend southward into NE Mexico and the Gulf of \nAmerica. A tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned \nridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is sustaining \nfresh to near gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured winds\nup to 29 kt. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft.\nMeanwhile, the pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure\nnear 33N130W and lower pressures across NW Mexico is supporting \nmoderate to locally strong NW winds and seas of 2-4 ft across \nmuch of the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds \nand seas of 7-10 ft are found in the offshore waters of Baja \nCalifornia. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to \nmoderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, a strong high pressure building over NE Mexico will \nsupport fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and rough seas in\nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue night. Winds and seas will \ndiminish quickly thereafter. However, another gap wind event may \ndevelop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu night, possibly reaching\ngale-force into the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, a series of pulses\nof moderate to large NW swell will continue to impact the Baja \nCalifornia waters into early this week. Fresh to locally strong \nnortherly winds will continue in the northern and central Gulf of\nCalifornia through this morning. Looking ahead, fresh to strong \nwinds and rough seas may reach the offshore waters of Baja \nCalifornia late next week.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nScattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect\nthe offshore waters of Central America, especially from El Salvador \nto Costa Rica. This activity is associated with a weak area of low \npressure centered just off Costa Rica. Heavy rainfall may lead to \nlife-threatening flash flooding and landslides across affected land \nareas. Please refer to your local weather agency and the \nInternational Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ndetails. Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and moderate seas are \nnoted north of 05N and between 84W and 90W. Locally strong winds are \nalso noted near the areas of strong convection. Elsewhere, moderate \nor lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, some development of the aforementioned low pres\nsystem is possible over the next day or so while the system \ndrifts slowly northwestward. Thereafter, environmental conditions\nare forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as\nthe system turns westward away from land. Regardless of \ndevelopment, this system is expected to bring areas of heavy rain\nto portions of Central America over the remainder of this \nweekend. The chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next \n48 hours and through the next 7 days is low. Looking ahead, fresh\nto locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulfs of Papagayo and \nPanama early this week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA broad subtropical ridge located north of the remainder of the\neastern Pacific basin continues to support moderate to fresh \nNE-E winds north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. This was confirmed\nby a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 8-\n10 ft, as indicated by a couple of altimeter passes in the last few \nhours. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 7-10 ft are \noccurring south of 03N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, moderate or \nlighter winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail. \nFor the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the area,\nsupporting moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas west of \n120W over the next few days. Cross-equatorial swell will \ncontinue to produce rough seas close to the equator, lingering \ninto the middle of this week. By midweek, strong winds and very \nrough seas will follow a cold front entering the NW waters, \nspreading southeastward over the following days. Seas may reach\naround 17 ft Thu night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1225712997259804675", "issued": "2026-11-08T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1225712997259804675"}