{"msg": "083\nAXPZ20 KNHC 072105\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sat Nov 7 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N88W to 09N92W to \n07N97W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N99W to 07N111W to 11N118W, and\nthen from 09N123W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 12N and E of \n95W, and from 10N to 16N between 114W and 122W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is seen from 05N to 09N between 104W and \n113W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nA 1025 mb high pressure system over the central United States\nextends a ridge across NE Mexico. A tight pressure gradient \nbetween the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep \ntropics supports fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft.\nMeanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge west of California sustains\nmoderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 7-11 ft,\nconfirmed by recent scatterometer data. The highest seas are \nfound west of Guadalupe Island. Moderate to locally strong NW \nwinds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the northern and \ncentral Gulf of California. Lastly, moderate to locally fresh NW \nwinds and moderate seas are noted offshore Jalisco. Elsewhere, \nmoderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, a strong high pressure building over NE Mexico\nwill support fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas in \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of next week. Winds\nand seas will diminish quickly thereafter. Meanwhile, a series \nof pulses of moderate to large NW swell will continue to impact \nthe Baja California waters into early next week, producing \nperiods of rough seas up to 12 ft across the NW zones. Fresh to \nlocally strong northerly winds are also expected in the northern \nGulf of California through Sun morning.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA broad area of low pressure centered off Costa Rica continues to\nproduce a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the offshore\nwaters. These storms are also impacting areas from Nicaragua to \nPanama. Heavy rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding \nand landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the \nInternational Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ndetails. Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and moderate seas are \nnoted north of 04N and east of 90W. Locally strong winds are \nalso noted near the areas of strong convection. Elsewhere, \nmoderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, environmental conditions are marginally\nconducive for further development of the broad low offshore \nCosta Rica over the next day or two, but strong upper-level winds\nare forecast to end formation chances early next week. However, \nthis system is expected to bring areas of heavy rain to portions \nof Central America through the weekend. The chance of tropical \ncyclone formation over the next 48 hours and through the next 7 \ndays is low. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong winds will \npulse in the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama early next week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nBroad ridging across the Eastern Pacific supports moderate to \nfresh NE-E winds and rough seas north of 10N and west of 120W. \nMeanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 7-10 ft are \noccurring south of 03N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, moderate or \nlighter winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail. Numerous moderate to\nstrong convection is seen S of 03N between 115W and 135W.\nFor the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the area,\nsupporting moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas west of \n120W into early next week. Several pulses of NW swell will impact\nthe waters north of 10N through the next several days, with \nrough to very rough seas up to 13-15 ft expected across the \nnorthern waters. Cross-equatorial swell will continue to produce \nrough seas close to the equator, lingering into the middle of \nnext week. By midweek, strong winds and very rough seas will \nfollow a cold front entering the NW waters, spreading \nsoutheastward over the following days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1225572820786937859", "issued": "2026-11-07T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1225572820786937859"}