{"id": "1225569064964489219", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-07T21:00:00Z", "msg": "671\nWTPA44 PHFO 072046\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number   5\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Sat Nov 07 2026\n \nVisible and infrared satellite imagery show that Pena's convective \nstructure has degraded slightly since the previous advisory. The \npreviously well-defined center has become obscured by an expanding \ncentral dense overcast (CDO), with embedded cloud-top temperatures \nas cold as -80 degrees C. A 1938 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass \nshowed an asymmetric system with peak winds of around 40 kt located \nnortheast of the center, which helped verify the initial wind radii. \nThe latest subjective Dvorak classification from HFO was T3.0/45 kt, \nin good agreement with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS that range \nbetween 42 and 47 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is \nheld at 45 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/8 \nkt. Pena is expected to maintain a general westward motion over the \nnext couple of days while steered by a broad low- to mid-level ridge \nanchored to its north. Track guidance remains tightly clustered on \nthis westward heading through 72 h. Thereafter, an approaching \nupper-level shortwave trough should induce a gradual turn toward the \nnorthwest with a slight increase in forward speed. The updated NHC \ntrack forecast is largely unchanged from the previous package, \nnudged only fractionally northward in the short term, and lies close \nto the HCCA and GDMI aids.\n \nPena's intensity forecast remains a bit of a conundrum. Statistical \nSHIPS guidance continues to insist on gradual intensification \nthroughout the period, responding to warm SSTs, low vertical wind \nshear, and adequate mid-level moisture. However, there remains some \nindications that Pena is likely contending with mid-level dry air \nentrainment and marginal upper-level winds, which could suppress \nsignificant strengthening over the next 36 to 48 h. The dynamical \nand statistical guidance reflects this tension with \nlarger-than-normal model spread, yielding lower-than-usual forecast \nconfidence. Consequently, the new NHC intensity forecast remains \nvery similar to the previous advisory, situated near the consensus \naids while remaining slightly higher than HCCA and GDMI throughout \nthe period.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  07/2100Z 11.5N 153.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 11.6N 155.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 11.6N 156.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 11.5N 158.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 11.5N 160.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  10/0600Z 11.5N 162.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z 11.8N 165.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  11/1800Z 12.7N 170.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  12/1800Z 14.5N 177.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}