{"id": "1225426410140827651", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-07T09:00:00Z", "msg": "040\nWTPA44 PHFO 070840\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number   3\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Fri Nov 06 2026\n\nThe latest satellite imagery indicates that Pena has re-developed\nconvective banding closer to the cyclone's center. In addition, a \njust-received GMI overpass suggests that the low-level structure \nhas become better defined, with the possible formation of a small \ninner core.  Satellite intensity estimates have generally nudged \nupward a little since the last advisory, and based on this trend \nthe initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. The latest \nscatterometer overpass missed the inner core, but did show an area \nof 25-30 kt winds 60-150 n mi away from the center in the eastern \nsemicircle.\n \nThe initial motion is westward or 275/10 kt. Pena should be steered \ngenerally westward for the next several days by a large low- to \nmid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone, with a west- \nnorthwestward motion possible near the end of the forecast period. \nThe track forecast guidance is in generally good agreement with \nthis scenario, although some of the models show a south of west \nmotion during the 24-60 h period. The new track forecast is similar \nto the previous forecast through 72 h and is a little south of the \nprevious forecast at 96 and 120 h.\n \nThe intensity forecast still has some confidence issues.  The\noverall environment still seems to be favorable, with warm sea\nsurface temperatures, a moist air mass, and light shear for at\nleast the next four days. This results in the statistical-\ndynamical guidance showing steady strengthening. However, the\ndynamical model guidance is in poor agreement on how much\nstrengthening will occur and if there will be any strengthening at\nall. To highlight the spread of just the global models, the ECMWF\nshows strengthening through the next five days, the GFS and the\nCanadian show little development through three days followed by\nsome strengthening, and the UKMET shows essentially no\nstrengthening at all during the forecast period.  Given the lack of\nmodel consensus even on trends in the forecast intensities, the \nintensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening in best \nagreement with the SHIPS model. The new forecast is an update of\nthe previous forecast.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  07/0900Z 11.4N 152.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 11.4N 153.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 11.4N 155.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 11.2N 157.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 11.2N 159.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  09/1800Z 11.2N 160.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  10/0600Z 11.3N 162.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  11/0600Z 11.6N 167.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  12/0600Z 12.9N 173.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}