{"id": "1225355823478079491", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-07T03:00:00Z", "msg": "792\nWTPA44 PHFO 070241\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number   2\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Fri Nov 06 2026\n\nSatellite imagery over the last several hours suggests that while \ndeep convection has weakened some around Pena's core, strong banding \npersists well away from the cyclone's center. The latest subjective \nDvorak intensity estimate from HFO rated the storm at 2.5/35 kt, but \nwith a Data T of 3.0/45 kt. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS also \nrange from 37-41 kt. Based on Pena's satellite presentation, the \ninitial intensity is held at 40 kt. \n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/10 kt. Pena \nis expected to keep moving westward over the next several days as it \nis steered by a high pressure ridge centered over the central \nPacific. Track guidance generally exhibits good agreement on Pena's \nmotion through most of the forecast period, depicting a turn to the \nwest-northwest by the middle of next week as the ridge slightly \nweakens. The latest NHC track forecast generally follows a blend of \nHCCA and GDMI guidance, reflecting a slight poleward shift in the \nlong-range track compared to the previous advisory. \n\nGradual intensification is forecast for Pena as its surrounding \nenvironment is characterized by low vertical wind shear, anomalously \nwarm SSTs, and ample mid-level moisture. In fact, SHIPS guidance \nfrom the GFS suggests a 48 percent chance of rapid intensification \nin 24 hours, reflecting the storm's favorable environment. Intensity \nguidance on average shows a upward trend compared to the previous \nadvisory, so the latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted higher \nto better depict this guidance over the forecast period.  In a \ncouple of days, the vertical wind shear forecasts are more \nuncertain, with some shear potentially undercutting the outflow \nlayer. Thus the forecast is leveled off, with model solutions \nranging from upper-end tropical storm to category 2 hurricane.  \nConfidence is increasing that the cyclone will undergo, at the very \nleast, gradual strengthening during the next few days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  07/0300Z 11.2N 151.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 11.4N 152.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 11.3N 154.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 11.3N 156.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 11.3N 158.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  09/1200Z 11.3N 160.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  10/0000Z 11.4N 161.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  11/0000Z 11.7N 165.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  12/0000Z 12.8N 171.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}