{"msg": "212\nAXNT20 KNHC 062327\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Sat Nov 7 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2230 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nWestern Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1003 mb low pressure area, Invest\nAL94, is located near 25N64.5W, with a cold front extending from \nthe low east-northeastward across the basin to 31N34W. High \npressure is centered north of these features over the NW Atlantic.\nThe resultant pressure gradient is producing fresh to near gale-\nforce NE to E winds across the north semicircle of the low east of\n69W, and extending eastward, north of the cold front, to 40W, per\nrecent satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 8 to 15 ft within \nthese winds. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also\nnoted in the same region while numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is north of 20N between 47W and 62W. The chances of \nthis low acquiring subtropical characteristics are decreasing due \nto strong upper-level winds that are expected to persist over the \nsystem into the weekend. The low is forecast to move generally \neastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic during \nthe next couple of days and become absorbed by a new non-tropical \nlow pressure system to its east later this weekend. Regardless, \ngale-force winds are likely to develop across the northern \nsemicircle of the low this evening, and then along the cold front \nSat through Sun morning, as the low tracks slowly eastward. For \nmore information, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts\nissued by the National Weather Service. Please read the latest \nHigh Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at \nwebsite: \nhttps://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html and the latest Tropical \nweather outlook at website: \nhttps://nhc.noaa.gov/text/TWOEP.html for more details.\nEastern Atlantic Gale Warning: \nThe pressure gradient between the aforementioned cold front and \nan eastern Atlantic high pressure ridge S of 20N between 30W and \n60W is supporting near-gale to gale force SW to W winds from 25N \nto 27.5N between 33W and 39W. Seas within these winds are 8 to 11 \nft. A non-tropical low is forecast to develop across this area \ntonight and move eastward, accompanied by near-gale to gale force \nSW winds. By Sat 12Z near- gale to gale force winds will prevail \nnorth of 26.5N between 21W and 25W. Peak seas to around 14 ft will\nlikely occur late tonight and Sat morning. Conditions will \nimprove Sat evening and the system move north of the area. Please \nread the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website:\nhttps://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html for more information\nHeavy Precipitation across Central America: Middle-level \ntroughing over the SW Caribbean and upper level divergence over \nCentral America and into the tropical eastern Pacific will \ninteract with enhanced low-level moisture and onshore flow south \nof the monsoon trough over the next few days. This will favor \nheavy precipitation developing across Central America through at \nleast Saturday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across \nNicaragua and Costa Rica, which may lead to life-threatening flash\nflooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather \nagency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center\nfor more details.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15.5W and extends \nto 08.5N18W, where it transitions to ITCZ, continuing on to 08N30W\nto 05.5N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection\nis noted from 01N to 11N between 24W and 41W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA front has become stationary from the Florida Panhandle near \n31N84W and continues southwestward to 25.5N91W to 26N96W. \nScattered moderate convection is found from 22N to 26.5N and west\nof 94W. Gentle N to NE winds prevail north of the front. Elsewhere,\na weak pressure gradient supports mainly light to gentle winds,\nwith slight seas basin-wide.\nFor the forecast, the front will slowly shift across the basin \ninto early next week as high pressure builds north of the front. \nMainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail behind the front.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe broad low pressure across the western Atlantic the past few\ndays has completely disrupted the trade wind flow across the\nCaribbean basin. Over the NE part of the basin, a deep- layered \ntrough is supporting scattered to numerous moderate convection N\nof 14.5N between 70W and the Anegada Passage. Light to gentle S to\nSW winds prevail across the area. Broad cyclonic flow generally\ndominates the rest of the basin. A surface trough is supporting \nscattered convection from 15N to 19N and west of 80W, where 1009\nmb low pressure is anaylzed near 15N82W. Light to gentle cyclonic\nwinds prevail W of 70W, except stronger in convection. Seas are 1\nto 3 ft E portions and 2 to 5 ft W portions.\n \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will\nresult in moderate or weaker winds, with slight to moderate seas,\nthrough early next week. Easterly winds will begin to return to\nthe basin Monday and strengthen over the central Caribbean \nTuesday.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section for information on the \nGale Warnings and the potential for subtropical development of \nInvest AL94.\nA stationary front extends from 31N34W to near Invest AL94. \nScattered to numerous moderate convection is depicted north of \n22N between 28W and 63W. Aside from the Gale Warnings moderate to\nfresh winds along with seas 5 to 8 ft previal N of the front to\n75W. To the south of Invest AL94, fresh SW to W winds prevail\nbetween 50W and 70W and become N to NE across the central and SE\nBahamas. Farther east, a ridge extends south of the front through\n20N35W to the central Lesser Antilles. gentle to moderate\nanticyclonic winds generally prevail there, with seas of 4 to 6 ft\nin N swell. Elsewhere, gentle or lighter winds and seas 4 to 5 ft\nprevail.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the 1003 mb low pres near 25N64.5W,\nInvest AL94, will drift slowly move east-northeastward. A second \nlow may develop east of this low by Sat. The lows will merge over \nthe eastern waters late in the weekend, then shift east of the \narea by early next week. An area of strong to gale- force winds, \nand rough to very rough seas, peaking near 15 ft, will persist \nnorth of the lows, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N \nand east of 65W through Sat night. Elsewhere, a weakening cold \nfront will move across the waters between Florida and 75W tonight,\nthen dissipate by Sun.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1225317520993386499", "issued": "2026-11-06T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1225317520993386499"}