{"msg": "303\nAXPZ20 KNHC 062100\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Fri Nov 6 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2030 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nLow pressure Offshore Central America and Associated Heavy \nRainfall Potential: Abundant tropical moisture associated with \nthe monsoonal circulation across the region, and favorable \nconditions aloft, will continue to result in numerous showers and\nscattered thunderstorms persisting across the regional waters N \nof 05N and E of 91W, and will affect parts of Central America. \nThe heaviest precipitation during the past 6 hours hours has \noccurred across portions of Panama, NW Costa Rica, coastal \nNicaragua, and the adjacent Pacific waters. This rainfall is \nexpected to continue this afternoon across Nicaragua and Costa \nRica and may continue through the weekend. At the surface, \nsatellite data suggests that a 1009 mb surface low is along the \nmonsoon trough near 10.5N89W, with peak winds of 20 kt. The low \nis expected to drift east-northeastward this afternoon and \ntonight, which may enhance rainfall across Nicaragua and Costa \nRico. A tropical depression could still form over the weekend \nwhen the low begins to drift slowly westward and offshore. Upper-\nlevel winds should prevent further development after the \nweekend. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone \nformation in the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC \nTropical Weather Outlook at website - \nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. \nRegardless of tropical development, heavy rainfall may lead to \nlife-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to \nyour local weather agency and the International Desk at the \nWeather Prediction Center for more details on rainfall potential.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 11.5N84.5W to low\npressure near 10.5N89W 1009 mb to 07N100W to low pressure near\n10.5N116.5W 1011 mb to 08.5N122.5W. The ITCZ stretches from \n08.5N122.5W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong\nconvection is observed from 04N to 13N and east of 95W. \nScattered moderate convection is noted south of 03N and east of \n85W, south of 01N between 118W and 135W, and from 09N to 13.5N \nwest of 114W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nA 1028 mb high pressure system near 33N135W extends a ridge \nsoutheastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, while elongated low \npressure prevails across the Gulf of California and the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed\ngentle to moderate N to NW winds across the offshore waters of \nBaja California, with locally fresh winds near Punta Eugenia. \nNorthwesterly swell is producing seas of 6-8 ft in these waters, \nexcept to 9 ft NW and W of Isla Guadalupe. Gentle to moderate \nnortherly winds prevail inside the northern Gulf of California,\nwith light and variable winds across southern portions. Moderate\nor weaker W to NW winds and slight to moderate seas in mixed SW \nand NW swell prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore\nwaters. However, fresh northerly gap winds have commenced across\nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec.\nFor the forecast, a series of pulses of moderate to large NW \nswell will continue to impact the Baja California waters into \nearly next week, producing periods of rough seas up to 12 ft \nacross the NW zones. Meanwhile, a tightening pressure gradient \nwill result in fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas in \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec starting this evening and continuing into\nearly next week. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are \nalso expected in the northern Gulf of California tonight through\nSun morning.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on low\npressure offshore Nicaragua that has potential for tropical \ndevelopment, and contributing to the heavy rainfall threat over \nportions of Central America.\nA broad area of low pressure is centered over the eastern\nTropical Pacific waters east of 94W and extends into Central \nAmerica. A 1009 mb low center is offshore of Nicaragua and El \nSalvador near 10.5N89W, and is drifting east-northeastward. \nAbundant tropical moisture is entrained in this monsoonal \ncirculation, and is resulting in numerous showers and scattered \nthunderstorms across the regional waters from the coastal waters \nof Colombia to El Salvador. Recent satellite scatterometer data \nshowed mostly gentle to moderate cyclonic winds N of 10N, and \ngentle to moderate SW to W winds south of 10N and into coastal \nColombia. Fresh SW winds were noted across the outer waters west \nof 87W. Seas are 4-7 ft in SW swell across these waters, except \nhigher near thunderstorms. \nFor the forecast, aside from the low pressure area with potential\nfor tropical cyclone formation, gentle to moderate winds and \nmoderate seas will prevail into early next week, as the low \npressure meanders offshore of Nicaragua and El Salvador through \nthe weekend. Winds may increase to fresh offshore of the Gulf of\nPapagayo and Nicaragua Sat night through Sun as the low begins to\nshift westward away from the coast. Heavy rainfall remains the \nmost significant impact across both the regional waters and land \nareas.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nThe tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned subtropical\nridge centered north of the area and lower pressures in the deep\ntropics results in fresh to locally strong NE to E winds from 10N\nto 28N and west of 120W. NW swell moving through these waters is \nproducing seas of 8-11 ft. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds\nand seas of 6-8 ft are present in the waters south of the \nequator and west of 105W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds \nand seas of 6-8 ft prevail.\nFor the forecast, moderate to locally strong trades will prevail\nover the west-central waters through today, followed by moderate\nto fresh winds west of 120W into early next week. Several pulses\nof NW swell will impact the waters north of 10N through the next\nseveral days, with rough to very rough seas to 12 ft and greater\nexpected across the northern waters. Cross- equatorial swell \nwill continue to produce rough seas close to the equator over the\nnext several days, possibly lingering into early next week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1225288704444792835", "issued": "2026-11-06T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1225288704444792835"}