{"id": "1225287780266770435", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-11-06T21:00:00Z", "msg": "086\nWTPA44 PHFO 062055\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Pena Discussion Number   1\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Fri Nov 06 2026\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure (Invest \nCP95) that we have been monitoring for several days has developed a \nwell-defined circulation, showing banded convection around its \ncenter. While the most recent constrained subject Dvorak analysis \nfrom HFO was CI number was 2.0/30 kt, the Data T was 3.0/45 kt, \nwhich probably better reflects the system's organization. A 1546 UTC \nSMOS microwave pass supports that assessment, showing winds above \ntropical-storm-force east of the center. Based on this, advisories \nhave been initiated on Tropical Storm Pena, with an intensity of 40 \nkt.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/10 kt, and \nthe storm is expected to continue this motion for the next several \ndays due to a high pressure ridge centered over the Central Pacific. \nModel guidance remains in good agreement through 72 h on Pena's \ntrack, then cross-track spread increases among the model solutions, \nresulting in lower-than-normal confidence. Additionally, the storm's \ninitial representation in much of the guidance is too weak, which \nadds another layer of uncertainty. The NHC track forecast has been \nset to follow the GDMI and HCCA aids.\n\nThe intensity forecast is tricky because the overall environment \ngenerally seems conducive to strengthening for at least the next day \nor so. While there is an increase in shear in much of the models \nthis weekend, this shear could abate early next week, with no \nobvious dry air or instability issues seen in the large-scale \nguidance. It is a little puzzling why many of the models show little \nchange or even a weakening so quickly in seemingly conducive \nconditions, though perhaps it is linked to the unrealistically weak \ninitial vortex representation of Pena.  The first forecast is on the \nhigher side of the guidance and reflects a blend of some aids that \nget close to hurricane-strength, while others weaken to a \ndepression. It probably goes without saying that this too is an \nuncertain prediction, similar to the track forecast.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  06/2100Z 11.3N 150.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 11.5N 151.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 11.4N 153.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 11.3N 155.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 11.3N 157.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  09/0600Z 11.2N 159.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  09/1800Z 11.0N 161.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  10/1800Z 11.3N 165.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  11/1800Z 11.9N 171.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n \n"}