{"msg": "752\nAXPZ20 KNHC 051917\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Thu Nov 5 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1910 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing \nover the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across\nnorthern portions of Central America and into the tropical\neastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- \nlevel moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over\nthe next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation \ndeveloping across Central America starting today and lasting \nthrough at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected \nacross Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation \noccurring through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life- \nthreatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your \nlocal weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather \nPrediction Center for more details.\nLow pressure offshore Nicaragua: A broad area of low pressure\noffshore of Central America is producing a large area of showers\nand thunderstorms that remain disorganized. Gradual development \nof this system is still possible during the next several days, \nand a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the \nlow drifts slowly offshore of the Central America coast. \nRegardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy\nrain to portions of Central America through this weekend. This \nsystem has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the \nnext 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical\nWeather Outlook at website:\nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from across the border of Nicaragua\nand Costa Rica to near the Gulf of Papagayo at 11N86W to broad\n1008 mb low pressure near 10.5N91.5W to 07.5N100W to 09N111W to\n1011 mb low pressure near 07N115W to 05N120W. The ITCZ extends\nfrom 05N120W to 08N140W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate \nto strong convection is noted from 03.4S to 14N between 77W and\n94W, from 03.4S to 13N between 103W and 123W, and north of the\nITCZ to 14N between 125W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nLarge NW swell with seas to rough are impacting the Baja\nCalifornia waters, highest well offshore of Baja Norte. Moderate\nseas prevail across the remainder of the waters, except slight in\nthe Gulf of California. Moderate or weaker winds dominate the\noffshore waters.\nFor the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to \nimpact the Baja California waters through the next several days \nwith seas to rough heights. Fresh winds will pulse in the \nnorthern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes starting Fri\nand continue through the weekend, locally strong in the northern\nGulf of California. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will \ndevelop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a cold front moves into the\nSW Gulf of America with these winds persisting through early \nnext week. Expect locally rough seas with these winds.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on low\npressure offshore Nicaragua that has potential for tropical \ndevelopment as well as a heavy rainfall threat over portions of \nCentral America.\nA zone of moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds is noted in the SE\nsemicircle of the low offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo. \nOtherwise, moderate or weaker winds dominate with moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, other than the low pressure area with tropical\ncyclone formation potential, gentle to moderate winds and\nmoderate seas will prevail into early next week. Winds may pulse\nto moderate to fresh offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo and in the\nGulf of Panama by Tue night.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nThe pressure gradient between high pressure building in from the\nnorth and lower pressure along the monsoon trough is leading to \nwidespread fresh NE to E winds across waters north of the \nmonsoon trough and west of 125W, locally strong from 10N to 24N \nto the west of 129W. Long period NW swell and wind-waves are \ncombining to create rough seas over the same area, with rough NW\nswell surrounding and covering the waters north of 10N and west\nof 118W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas\nprevail, building to rough in the south-central waters.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the\nwest-central waters through the end of the week, locally strong\ninto the weekend until the gradient relaxes some. Several sets of\nNW swell will impact the waters north of 10N through the next\nseveral days, with rough seas expected. Merging SE and NW swells \nare likely to produce rough seas close to the equator for the end\nof the week and into the upcoming weekend, possibly lingering \ninto early next week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1224985271865573379", "issued": "2026-11-05T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1224985271865573379"}