{"msg": "070\nAXPZ20 KNHC 051419\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Thu Nov 5 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1400 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing \nover the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across\nnorthern portions of Central America and into the tropical\neastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- \nlevel moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over\nthe next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation \ndeveloping across Central America starting today and lasting \nthrough at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected \nacross Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation \noccurring through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life- \nthreatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your \nlocal weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather \nPrediction Center for more details.\nLow pressure offshore Nicaragua: A broad area of low pressure\noffshore of Central America is producing a large area of showers\nand thunderstorms that have not become any better organized over\nthe past day. Gradual development of this system is possible \nduring the next several days, and a tropical depression could \nform by this weekend while the low drifts slowly offshore of the \nCentral America coast. Regardless of development, this system \ncould bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America \nthrough this weekend. This system has a medium chance of tropical\ncyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer \nto the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website:\nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from across the border of Nicaragua\nand Costa Rica to near the Gulf of Papagayo at 11N86W to broad\n1008 mb low pressure at 10N91W to 07N101W to 1011 mb low \npressure at 08N112W to 04N122W to 05N128W. The ITCZ extends from\n05N128W to 09N140W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate to\nstrong convection is noted from 03.4S to 15N between 77W and 93W,\nfrom 03.4S to 12N between 103W and 122W, and within 330 nm NE of\nthe ITCZ between 130W and 140W. Similar convection is from 01N to\n04N between 130W and 135W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nModerate to locally fresh NW winds are present in the offshore \nwaters of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to high \npressure N of the region. Seas in these waters are 7 to 9 ft. \nModerate to fresh gap winds have developed in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Elsewhere, across the Mexican offshore waters, light\nto gentle winds prevail, with moderate seas in mainly SW swell, \nmixed with NW swell west of 105W, and except for the Gulf of \nCalifornia, where slight seas dominate.\nFor the forecast, large NW swell will impact the Baja waters \nthrough tonight, with reinforcing NW swell arriving Fri and \nlingering into early Sun. Fresh winds will pulse in the northern \nGulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes starting Fri and \ncontinue through the weekend, locally strong in the northern Gulf\nof California. Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly gap \nwinds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night, then \nincrease Sun night as a cold front moves into the SW Gulf of \nAmerica, with gales possible Mon night. Expect rough seas with \nthese winds. Another set of large and rough NW swell is likely to\napproach Baja California Mon. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on low\npressure offshore Nicaragua that has potential for tropical \ndevelopment as well as a heavy rainfall threat over portions of \nCentral America.\nA zone of moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds is noted ESE of \nthis low. Otherwise, winds are gentle to moderate with moderate \nseas.\nFor the forecast, other than the low pressure area with tropical\ncyclone formation potential, gentle to moderate winds and\nmoderate seas will prevail.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nThe pressure gradient between high pressure building in from the\nnorth and lower pressure along the monsoon trough is leading to \nwidespread fresh NE to E winds across waters N of the monsoon \ntrough and west of 125W, locally strong from 11N to 24N to the W\nof 130W. Long period NW swell and wind-waves are combining to \ncreate rough seas over the same area. Elsewhere, light to gentle \nwinds prevail, with moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the\nwest-central waters through the end of the week, locally strong\ninto the weekend until the gradient relaxes some. Reinforcing NW\nswell will start to arrive today, keeping seas rough. Additional\nNW swell will keep moving in through the weekend and into early \nnext week. Looking ahead, merging NW and SE swell is likely to \nproduce 8 to 9 ft seas close to the equator by late Fri into the \nweekend, possibly lingering into early next week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1224926829792886787", "issued": "2026-11-05T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1224926829792886787"}