{"msg": "009\nAXPZ20 KNHC 050332\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Thu Nov 5 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing \nover the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across\nnorthern portions of Central America and into the tropical\neastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- \nlevel moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over\nthe next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation \ndeveloping across Central America starting today and lasting \nthrough at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected \nacross Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation \noccurring through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life- \nthreatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your \nlocal weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather \nPrediction Center for more details.\nEastern East Pacific:\nA broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of \ndisorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of \nCentral America. Gradual development of this system is possible \nduring the next several days, and a tropical depression could form \nby this weekend while the low drifts northward. Regardless of \ndevelopment, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions \nof Central America through this weekend.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 05N115W to beyond\n08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 13N\nbetween 77W and 98W, from 03S to 09N between 106W and 124W, from\n07W to 11N between 126W and 134W, and from 08N to 20N between\n137W and 140W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nFresh NW winds are present in the offshore waters of Baja \nCalifornia north of Cabo San Lazaro due to high pressure \nbuilding SE toward the region. Seas in these waters are 7 to 9 \nft. Elsewhere, across the Mexican offshore waters, light to \ngentle winds prevail, with moderate seas in mainly SW swell, \nmixed with NW swell west of 110W, and except for the Gulf of \nCalifornia, where slight seas dominate.\nFor the forecast, high pressure west of Baja California will \nmaintain a ridge across the region, supporting fresh NW winds \nacross the Baja Norte waters through tonight. Large NW swell will\nimpact the Baja waters into Thu night. The next pulse of large \nNW swell will reach the Baja waters beginning Fri. Fresh winds \nwill pulse in the northern Gulf of California and near Cabo \nCorrientes starting Fri afternoon and continue through the \nweekend. Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will \ndevelop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night, increasing Sun \nnight as a cold front moves into the SW Gulf of America, with \ngales possible Mon night. A set of large and rough NW swell may \napproach Baja California Mon. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nSee Special Features section above for information on low\npressure offshore Nicaragua that has potential for tropical\ndevelopment as well as heavy rainfall threat over portions of\nCentral America.\nA broad zone of moderate to locally fresh S winds is noted ESE \nof this low, along with scattered moderate convection. Locally \nrough seas are possible there as well. The winds and convection \nextends southward to near the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, winds\nare light to gentle, with moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, the broad area of low pressure offshore \nCentral America has the possibility of gradual development during\nthe next several days, and a tropical depression could form by \nthis weekend while the low drifts northward. Regardless of \ndevelopment, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to \nportions of Central America through this weekend. There is a \nmedium chance of tropical formation over the next 48 hours. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nThe low pressure, Invest CP95, that is along the monsoon trough\nW of 140W has moved farther W away from the region and no further\nimpacts are anticipated in the eastern Pacific in association \nwith it. \nThe pressure gradient between high pressure building in from the\nnorth and lower pressure along the monsoon trough is leading to \nwidespread moderate to fresh NE to E winds across waters N of the\nmonsoon trough and west of 120W, locally strong near 15N140W. \nLong period NW swell and wind-waves are combining to create rough\nseas over the same area. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds \nprevail, with moderate seas\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the\nwest-central waters, locally strong through the end of the week.\nMeanwhile, NW swell will continue spreading through the region \nthrough tonight, while reinforcing NW swell will start to arrive\nby early Thu, keeping seas rough. Additional NW swell will keep \nmoving in through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. \nLooking ahead, merging NW and SE swell id likely to produce 8 to\n9 ft seas close to the equator by the end of the week into the \nweekend, possibly lingering into early next week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1224799568874602499", "issued": "2026-11-05T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1224799568874602499"}