{"msg": "550\nAXPZ20 KNHC 041947\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1930 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing \nover the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across\nnorthern portions of Central America and into the tropical\neastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- \nlevel moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over\nthe next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation \ndeveloping across Central America starting today and lasting \nthrough at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected \nacross Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation \noccurring through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life- \nthreatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your \nlocal weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather \nPrediction Center for more details.\nWell Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Invest EP95/CP95): A \n1008 mb has recently moved west from the East Pacific basin to\nthe Central Pacific basin near 08.5N140.5W. This low is starting\nto produce more concentrated shower and thunderstorm activity as\ndescribed with the monsoon trough below. Environmental \nconditions appear conducive for additional development of this \nsystem, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the \nCentral Pacific basin during the next few days while it moves \nwestward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. This system has \na medium chance for tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 \nhours and high chance in the next 7 days. Please refer to the \nlatest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website:\nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOCP.shtml for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from across central Nicaragua to near\nthe Gulf of Papagayo at 12N87W to 04N98W to 07.5N105W to 03N128W\nto low pressure, Invest EP95/CP95, now just west of the area at \n08.5N140.5W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is \nnoted from 02S to 13N between 77W and 98W, from 03.4S to 09N\nbetween 106W and 124W, and from 07N to 11N between 126W and 134W.\nSimilar convection is from 08N to 20N between 137W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nModerate to fresh NW winds are pressure in the offshore waters of\nBaja California north of Cabo San Lazaro as noted on recent ASCAT\nscatterometer data due to high pressure building SE toward the \nregion. Seas in these waters are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, across the\nMexican offshore waters, gentle winds prevail, with moderate \nseas in mainly SW swell, mixed with NW swell west of 110W, and \nexcept for the Gulf of California, where slight seas dominate.\nFor the forecast, high pressure west of Baja California will \nmaintain a ridge across the region, supporting moderate to fresh \nNW winds across the Baja Norte waters through tonight, locally\nstrong near Sebastian Vizcaino Bay in the evening. Large NW \nswell will impact the Baja waters through Thu. The next pulse of \nlarge NW swell will reach the Baja waters beginning early Fri.\nModerate to fresh winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of\nCalifornia and near Cabo Corrientes starting Fri afternoon.\nLooking ahead, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will develop\nin the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night, increasing to near gale \nforce Sun night as a cold front moves into the SW Gulf of \nAmerica, and then possible gale force Mon night. A set of large\nand rough NW swell may approach Baja California early next week.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of \ndisorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of \nCentral America as described with the monsoon trough above. A\nbroad zone of moderate to locally fresh S winds is noted ESE of \nthis low, along with numerous moderate to isolated strong \nconvection as described with the monsoon trough above. Locally \nrough seas are possible there as well. The winds and convection \nextends southward to near the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, winds\nare light to gentle, with moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, the broad low pressure is forecast to drift \nnorthward. Gradual development of this system is possible during\nthe next several days, and a tropical depression could form by \nthis weekend. There is a low chance of tropical formation over \nthe next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 7 days. \nRegardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy\nrain to portions of Central America through this weekend. See \nthe Special Features section above for details. Mainly moderate \nor weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features Section above for information on low\npressure that has very recently crossed from the East Pacific\nbasin to the Central Pacific basin with the potential for \ntropical development. \nA frontal trough is analyzed over the northern waters from\nroughly 28N118W to 25N140W. Little sensible weather remains \nassociated with this boundary, which should fully dissolve later \ntonight. The pressure gradient between high pressure building in\nfrom the north and lower pressure along the monsoon trough is \nleading to widespread moderate to fresh NE to E winds across \nwaters N of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, locally strong \nnear the area of low pressure at 140W. Long period NW swell and \nwind-waves are combining to create rough seas over the same \narea. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail, with moderate \nseas\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the\nwest-central waters, locally strong through the end of the week.\nMeanwhile, NW swell will continue spreading through the region \nthrough tonight, while reinforcing new NW swell will start to \narrive by early Thu, keeping rough seas. Additional reinforcing \nNW swell will keep moving in through the upcoming weekend and \ninto early next week. Looking ahead, merging NW and SE swell may\nproduce 8 to 9 ft seas close to the equator by the end of the\nweek into the weekend, possibly lingering into early next week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1224708047149596675", "issued": "2026-11-04T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1224708047149596675"}