{"msg": "656\nAXPZ20 KNHC 041513\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing \nover the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across\nnorthern portions of Central America and into the tropical\neastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- \nlevel moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over\nthe next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation \ndeveloping across Central America starting today and lasting \nthrough Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across\nNicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation \noccurring today through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to \nlife-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to \nyour local weather agency and the International Desk at the \nWeather Prediction Center for more details.\nWell Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Invest EP95): An 1008 mb \narea of low pressure located over the western portion of the \nEast Pacific basin near 08.5N138W continues to produce \ndisorganized shower and thunderstorm activity as described with\nthe monsoon trough below. Associated winds are currently 20 to 25\nkt with seas of 3.0 to 4.0 m enhanced with background NW swell. \nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development\nof this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over\nthe Central Pacific basin during the next few days while it \nmoves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. This system \nhas a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation in the next 48\nhours and high chance in the next 7 days. Please refer to the \nlatest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website:\nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1009 low pressure in the SW\nCaribbean Sea near 11N75W to 11N87W to 05N99W to 08N108W to\n05N131W to 1008 mb low pressure near 08N138W to 07N140W. \nNumerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01S\nto 12N between 77W and 97W, from 03S to 14N between 102W and\n126W, and from 05N to 18N between 128W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nModerate to fresh NW winds are pressure in the offshore waters of\nBaja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to high pressure \nbuilding SE toward the region. Seas in these waters are 6 to 8 \nft. Elsewhere, across the Mexican offshore waters, gentle winds \nprevail, with moderate seas in mainly SW swell, mixed with NW\nswell west of 110W, and except for the Gulf of California, where\nslight seas dominate.\nFor the forecast, high pressure west of Baja California will \nmaintain a ridge across the region, supporting moderate to fresh \nNW winds across the Baja Norte waters through tonight, locally\nstrong near Sebastian Vizcaino Bay in the evening. Large NW \nswell will impact the Baja waters through Thu. The next pulse of \nlarge NW swell will reach the Baja waters beginning early Fri.\nModerate to fresh winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of\nCalifornia and near Cabo Corrientes starting Fri afternoon.\nLooking ahead, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will develop\nin the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night, possibly increasing to gale\nforce Sun night as a cold front moves into the SW Gulf of\nAmerica.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of \ndisorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of \nCentral America near 08N92.5W. A broad zone of moderate to \nlocally fresh S winds is noted ESE of this low, along with \nnumerous moderate to isolated strong convection as described with\nthe monsoon trough above. Locally rough seas are possible there\nas well. The winds and convection extends southward to near the \nGalapagos Islands. Otherwise, winds are light to gentle, with \nmoderate seas. \nFor the forecast, the broad low pressure is forecast to drift \nnorthward and has some potential for gradual development. Gradual\ndevelopment of this system is possible during the next several \ndays, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend. There\nis a low chance of tropical formation over the next 48 hours and\na medium chance in the next 7 days. Regardless of development, \nthis system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of \nCentral America through this weekend. See the Special Features \nsection above for details on this heavy rainfall potential. \nMainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail \nelsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features Section above for information on low\npressure in the far western basin that has a potential for\ntropical development. \nA frontal trough is analyzed over the northern waters from\nroughly 28N122W to 25N140W. Little sensible weather remains \nassociated with this boundary, which should fully dissolve later \ntoday. The pressure gradient between high pressure building in \nfrom the north and lower pressure along the monsoon trough is \nleading to widespread moderate to fresh NE to E winds across \nwaters N of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, locally strong\nnear the area of low pressure. Long period NW swell and wind- \nwaves are combining to create rough seas over the same area. \nElsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail, with moderate seas\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the\nwest-central waters, locally strong through the end of the week.\nMeanwhile, NW swell will continue spreading through the region \nthrough tonight, while reinforcing new NW swell will start to \narrive by early Thu, keeping rough seas. Additional reinforcing \nNW swell will keep moving in through the upcoming weekend and \ninto early next week. Looking ahead, on Fri and Sat merging NW \nand SE swell may produce 8 to 9 ft seas close to the equator, \nlingering for the remainder of the weekend into early next week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1224654273408335875", "issued": "2026-11-04T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1224654273408335875"}