{"msg": "169\nAXPZ20 KNHC 040841\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0800 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing \nover the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across\nnorthern portions of Central America and into the tropical\neastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- \nlevel moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over\nthe next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation \ndeveloping across Central America starting today and lasting \nthrough Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across \nsouthern and western portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and southern \nNicaragua, with the bulk of precipitation occurring today through\nThursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash \nflooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather \nagency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction \nCenter for more details.\nWell Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95): A broad area of \nlow pressure located over the western portion of the East Pacific\nbasin is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm \nactivity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual \ndevelopment of this system, and a tropical depression is likely \nto form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days \nwhile it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 11N73W to low pressure near \n08N91W to 05N116W to low pressure near 08N137W beyond 06N140W. \nNumerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N\nto 12N E of 96W and from 02N to 13N W of 110W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nModerate to fresh NW winds are pressure in the offshore waters of\nBaja California due to high pressure building SE toward the \nregion. Seas in these waters are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, across the\nMexican offshore waters, gentle winds prevail, with moderate \nseas in SW swell, except for the Gulf of California, where slight\nseas dominate.\nFor the forecast, high pressure W of Baja California will \nmaintain a ridge across the region, supporting moderate to fresh \nNW winds across the Baja Norte waters through tonight. Large NW \nswell will impact the Baja waters through Thu. The next pulse of\nlarge NW swell will reach the Baja waters beginning early Fri. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLow pressure of 1008 mb is along the monsoon trough near \n08N91W. A broad zone of moderate to locally fresh S winds is\nnoted E of this low offshore Nicaragua and Costa Rica, along with\nnumerous moderate to isolated strong convection. This extends\nsouthward to near the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, winds are\nlight to gentle, with moderate seas.  \nFor the forecast, the low pressure offshore Nicaragua is forecast\nto drift northward and has some potential for gradual\ndevelopment. A tropical depression may form by this weekend.\nThere is a low chance of tropical formation over the next 48\nhours and a medium chance in the next 7 days. Regardless of\ndevelopment, heavy rainfall is likely over portions of Central\nAmerica for the remainder of the week. See the Special Features\nsection above for details on this heavy rainfall potential. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features Section above for information on low\npressure in the far western basin that has a potential for\ntropical development. \nA dissipating stationary front extends from 30N124W to 28N130W.\nLittle sensible weather remains associated with this boundary,\nwhich should fully dissolve later today. The pressure gradient\nbetween high pressure building in from the north and lower\npressure along the monsoon trough is leading to widespread\nmoderate to fresh NE to E winds across waters N of the monsoon \ntrough and E of 120W. Long period NW swell and wind-waves are \ncombining to create rough seas over the same area. Elsewhere, \nlight to gentle winds prevail, with moderate seas\nFor the forecast, NW swell will continue spreading through the\nregion through tonight, while reinforcing new NW swell will start\nto arrive by early Thu. Looking ahead, on Fri and Sat merging NW\nand SE swell may produce 8-9 ft seas close to the equator. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1224577224149729283", "issued": "2026-11-04T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1224577224149729283"}